(Toronto) The average price of a home in Canada could fall 20% to 25% by the first quarter of 2023, compared to the peak seen earlier this year, suggests a new report from TD Bank.
Posted at 12:57 p.m.
In addition, the number of homes sold is expected to fall by 35% over the same period, the report estimates.
According to economist Rishi Sondhi, the projected drop in prices represents an unprecedented decline since at least the late 1980s, when these data began to be collected. But the decline would also follow an unprecedented rise seen during the pandemic.
The TD report notes that lower national house prices would only partially eat away at the 46% gain seen during the pandemic.
As such, Mr. Sondhi writes that the forecast could be more aptly described as a recalibration of the market, instead of something more severe.
Over the long term, TD remains more bullish on the outlook for the housing market, as it says population growth should remain healthy and support fundamental demand.