The car heads towards Voronezh in southwestern Russia. The occupant of the passenger seat grabbed his phone and films what he sees to his right: the Maslovka railway station, less than 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. On the rails and at the foot of the railway line dozens of armored vehicles, transport vehicles and tanks. The 30-second video is posted to TikTok and ends up being relayed by several accounts specializing in geopolitics and defense.
Воронеж pic.twitter.com/fc2I1cSkg8
– IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) December 8, 2021
There are dozens of such videos since the fall. We selected about fifteen of them, and were able to identify with precision the place where they were shot thanks to the clues visible in the images, to the comments of those who published them or to the specialists online. The analysis of these videos and satellite images makes it possible to document, in the opinion of various analysts contacted by franceinfo, “an unprecedented deployment of Russian forces” towards the border. Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists have been waging a latent war since 2014 for control of the Donbass and Crimea regions. But this step represents a further escalation that could, according to American and Ukrainian officials, lead to an invasion.
The TikTok app is typically used for sharing short, humorous videos. But since the end of October, images of tanks and military vehicles have multiplied there, along with keywords such as # военнаятехника (“military equipment“in Russian) and its variants. They are often spotted by specialized accounts which distribute them more widely. As shown in the video below, we have located around fifteen road and rail convoys, which seem to be heading towards the Ukrainian border (the direction of movement is indicated by the red arrows), and in particular towards the contested regions of Donbass, in the east, and Crimea, in the south.
These amateur images show the quantity of material transported. Whole battalions are routed, as on this video released on December 6, where we can see artillery, tankers, command and repair vehicles. Some convoys would even be transported over thousands of kilometers, like the one observed on December 4 near Moscow, but which, according to a specialized site, would belong to a brigade based near Mongolia.
The situation is more difficult to assess in Crimea. Since 2014, the peninsula controlled by pro-Russian separatists – and de facto annexed by Russia – has already been heavily militarized. What’s more, “We are currently seeing a lot of movement of units entering and leaving Crimea, which makes it very difficult to assess the military presence in the region”, notes Konrad Muzyka, Polish analyst specializing in defense issues, contacted by franceinfo.
We have nonetheless located several amateur videos showing the movements of road convoys, potentially in the direction of the Opuk training camp, in south-eastern Crimea, which has been more active in recent months. “This seaside base could be used for loading landing ships”, says the anonymous blogger Coupsure, who specializes in conflict analysis using open source data. The situation is also agitated in Russia itself, in the east of Crimea, as evidenced by this train crossing Krasnodar with, on board, many tanks.
@ lili_3372 В Краснодар. Куда их ведут?
♬ оригинальный звук – Lili84
Russia’s efforts to cover up these displacements do not help allay the concerns. Some videos show trains traveling at night, which some interpret as a desire to escape sight. Others carry vehicles whose the identification numbers have been painted over. And several researchers have reported being banned from the GdeVagon online platform, which is used to locate Russian trains – including those carrying military equipment.
Russia justifies these trips by “Provocation” Ukrainian and European forces who would amass their forces near the Donbass. On the Ukrainian side, we were able to identify three military convoys, filmed on December 7 and 8 by a surveillance camera on the outskirts of Zaporizhia and heading east. American planes also operated reconnaissance flights over the Black Sea, near the Russian coast. Despite this, videos to substantiate Russian accusations are scarce. “The convoys and the number of equipment present show, in my opinion, some preparation on the Ukrainian side, but the intensity is not comparable to what we see on the Russian side”, explains blogger Coupsure. In recent days, however, Ukraine’s armed forces have started deploying air defense systems around strategic locations, according to analyst Konrad Muzyka.
At the same time, several specialists have already noted the strengthening of certain Russian bases, at least in terms of equipment. A U.S. intelligence document revealed by the Washington post at the beginning of December presents three recent satellite images attesting to these movements. They show military camps located in areas close to the border. We see the arrival of many vehicles and, according to the daily, the installation of about fifty infantry battalions. Lower quality satellite photos, available online, show the development of the base near Ielnya (or Yelnya), in Russia. As shown in the gif below, between September 9 and November 1 (last clear image available), a whole expansion is created, housing dozens of vehicles.
Other deployments have been reported on social networks, such as the recent development of a base near Valouïki, a few tens of kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
High resolution images taken by @Maxar September 7 (left) and December 5 (right) from the base near Valouïki. This base is located about 20km from Ukraine. https://t.co/aRoJZnb28b pic.twitter.com/bIqHUcSkN7
– COUPSURE (@COUPSURE) December 12, 2021
This is not the first time that Russia has mobilized its troops near its border with Ukraine. In the spring of 2021, a similar deployment had already triggered panic in Europe, without leading to open conflict. Much of the Russian equipment then moved had remained in place, officially for military exercises planned for the fall. But his stay was prolonged, as in Ielnya, and the mobilization of recent weeks seems even more intense. “Russia has never led such an armament effort near another country in times of peace”, says Konrad Muzyka.
“The nature of the forces deployed is not quite the same either, adds Christine Dugoin-Clément, researcher specialized in Ukraine for CAPE Europe think tank. Today you have more BTR-82 armored personnel carriers, Nona-SVK self-propelled guns, Typhoon armored vehicles… “ Other unusual elements have appeared, such as trench diggers Where a missile launcher. According to Konrad Muzyka, very modern infantry fighting vehicles were taken from their reserve to create a new regiment. “This is a very worrying sign, which confirms preparations for going to war”, he believes. In his eyes, there is only one thing missing from this equipment to be operational: soldiers.
“The deployment of materiel is not accompanied by a proportional deployment of troops. But Russia now has many more troops than in 2014-2015, and in the event of a conflict, personnel could simply be dispatched. to the bases by airplanes. “
Konrad Muzyka, Polish Defense Analystto franceinfo
But the outcome of these movements is far from certain. On the one hand, “deploying all these devices is very expensive. It’s hard to believe that there is no finality”, considers Christine Dugoin-Clément. The possibility of Ukraine joining NATO is presented as a red line by Moscow. But this agitation could only be a way of showing the muscles to assert themselves against the United States. According to Konrad Muzyka, these efforts “confirm [en tout cas] Russia’s willingness to keep Ukraine in its orbit “. It remains to be seen how far it will go to meet this objective.