The two big favorites of the Tour will meet to cross swords from Saturday, and each arrives with very different certainties.
This will be the third time they will face each other in the Tour de France, but it will be the second where they will measure eye to eye. In 2021, when Tadej Pogacar had crushed the Tour de France, Jonas Vingegaard was then Primoz Roglic’s spare lieutenant, even if he had been the only one to unhook Pogacar from his wheel on Mont Ventoux. In 2022, the Dane, inducted leader, had avenged his team by harassing in the Col du Granon a bloodless Pogacar, victim of the heat and the battering of the Jumbo-Visma.
Here they are ready for the second act, starting in Bilbao on Saturday. And if they seem alone on their planet to aim for the final victory, they start this Tour with different preparations.
Preparation: Vingegaard advantage
Without his big fall during Liège-Bastogne-Liège, which caused him a wrist injury and a stoppage of competition until last week, Tadej Pogacar would undoubtedly have won this first duel. The 24-year-old Slovenian had pulled out all the stops at the start of the year: two victories in his stage races (Tour of Andalusia and Paris-Nice, with three stage victories each time), and a classic campaign exceptional (victory in the Tour of Flanders, the Amstel Gold Race and the Flèche Wallonne).
But this fall in Liège on April 23 turned everything upside down, and cast doubt: with only two days of racing since that date (his national championships on the road and against the clock, both won), Pogacar arrives at the stop at the Tour, where everyone likes to arrive launched. “The training went well, the sensations are good, I feel ready”, swept the two-time winner on Thursday. “He is young and so gifted that I am sure he will respond. Sometimes a little rest even makes you stronger”added his faithful Sherpa Rafal Majka.
For his part, Jonas Vingegaard followed a much straighter preparation trajectory. The discreet Dane did not scatter over the classics, contenting himself with crushing the stage races he took part in (Gran Camino, Tour of the Basque Country, Dauphiné). He was dominated by Pogacar on Paris-Nice (3rd) but the peak of form and July were still far away, and the rest confirmed it: on the Dauphiné at the beginning of June, he seemed very largely above the competition. “I had a good period after the Dauphiné, we went to training camp, I feel ready. I am where I wanted to be, my form is good. For the last two months, I have only thought about training to be ready for the Tour. We’ll see in three weeks if that’s enough.” explained the incumbent winner on Thursday.
Versatility: Pogacar advantage
A Tour is always won in the mountains, but can be lost almost anywhere. And in this game, Tadej Pogacar has everything to shake up his rival. In 2022, his stunt on the cobbles coincided with Jumbo-Visma’s bike change mess, which ultimately limited damage. The agility on his mount, the ability to tame all terrains and all weathers, as well as his punch give Pogacar a large advantage against the Dane in the event of unforeseen terrain or dantesque conditions. The Basque Country is already full of them.
Jonas Vingegaard will rely heavily on his team to avoid pitfalls. The Dane is not as feline as Pogacar on the bike, calculates his pedal strokes much more, but his anxious nature constantly awakens his senses, and he only very rarely makes mistakes, in the race and tactically. And it was he who ended up surprising, and using, Pogacar last year. “I learned a lot from the last year, especially to do less stupid things. We will have a slightly different mentality this year.”, said Pogacar. It will probably take even more this year to falter the Dane.
Psychological warfare: equality
“Jonas is the favourite”. Stripped of his title last year, Tadej Pogacar took the opportunity to shift all the pressure on his rival, who found himself in his situation a year later. Relieved of the pressure of the outgoing champion, the Slovenian resumes the costume he likes: that of a hunter. The Slovenian with the wick protruding from the helmet, reminiscent of a shark’s fin, sets out again to hunt the Dane, and it is undoubtedly there that he is the most formidable. “Pogacar will arrive with zero pressure, that makes him even more dangerous”summarizes Mathieu van der Poel.
Jonas Vingegaard, he, as often prefers to kick into touch and play down the emerging rivalry. “On the one hand I am hunted, but on the other I am still chasing victory. It doesn’t really matter who the favorite is,” he evacuated on Thursday. The Dane, who had been able to maneuver without shaking the defense of a first yellow jersey in 2022, had however retired from cycling for two months, admitting to having had a “mental blast”. “Things have changed when you win the Tour, but I haven’t changed.” he warned Thursday. The fire of Pogacar always finds its antithesis in the ice of Vingegaard, and everyone has played their cards until the Grand Départ, where they will no longer be able to play hide and seek.
Team strength: Vingegaard advantage
A Tour is never won on its own, Pogacar like Vingegaard know it and never forget their close guard. Already less armed on paper, the UAE-Emirates formation of Pogacar had evolved a tone below Jumbo-Visma in 2022, not helped by the abandonments of George Bennett, Marc Soler and Rafal Majka. In 2023, manager Mauro Gianetti swapped Bennett for Felix Grossschartner and Marc Hirschi for… Adam Yates, recent 2nd in the Dauphiné.
The enthronement of the Briton as “co-leader” by his manager gives as many guarantees on the level of Yates as doubts on that of Pogacar. Is it a bluff? Still, if it lacks strength on the flat, Pogacar’s formation will be able to accompany it for a long time in the passes. “We have a good team, at least for now. She was strong last year too but it got worse and worse. I hope that this year, luck will be more on our side, we have worked a lot together these last months”, hope Pogacar.
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For Vingegaard, two changes are also worth noting compared to 2022: Primoz Roglic, winner of the Giro, leaves his place to Dylan van Baarle, while Steven Kruijswijk, initially planned, has crashed and is replaced by Wilco Kelderman. For the Dutch, already the most complete team last year, it is the force of habit that will be the main asset. “It’s the same guys, we know our strengths for a lot of us. We will have more calm this year”, explains Wout van Aert, who could leave the race in the event of the birth of his new child. Jumbo-Visma has a solution for all terrains, and everyone has already understood that there is only one goal for them: to bring Jonas Vingegaard to a second title.