Faced with the threat of military intervention in Ukraine, the United Kingdom sent, Thursday, February 10, 350 soldiers to Poland. A little earlier, Denmark announced the imminent arrival of American soldiers on its soil as part of a new bilateral agreement. Military pressure from Moscow is also pushing Sweden and Ireland to increase their army budgets.
Sweden has reconnected with military culture
In Sweden, the desire for rearmament does not date from the current episode of tension between Russia and Ukraine, it actually dates back to 2014. Before that date, the country had completely let its guard down. The Berlin Wall had fallen, no one trembled anymore when looking towards the East. Stockholm had reduced its military budget with cuts each year, barracks closed and sold to the private sector, bases dismantled. And then there was Russia’s attack on Crimea. A senior Swedish officer then publicly denounced the state of his army, saying that in the face of a Russian attack, it could only hold out for a few days.
The turnaround therefore took place eight years ago. First with additional means. Sweden has gone from a military budget of four billion in 2013 to nine billion in 2025. The envelope will therefore more than double. This allows the Swedish army to equip and expand its ranks. At the end of the Cold War, Sweden was a large European army, with 21 brigades of 5,000 men. In 2015, at the lowest point, there was only one brigade left. This gives you an idea of how much to catch up on.
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How did the population react to this comeback of the army? The question is important in a rather neutral country, which has not experienced any conflict on its territory for two centuries. A nation where the military career and military interests were not much considered, to say the least. But that too has changed, especially with the restoration of military service. The objective, for the moment, is to recruit 8,000 conscripts per year. And then there are also the many maneuvers that the Swedish army is now carrying out all over the country, the barracks that have reopened. The Swedes have become accustomed to seeing their soldiers again.
#HappeningNow: #SecurityCouncil meeting on the situation in #Ukraine.
Sweden reiterates our unwavering support to Ukraine.
Sweden #StandWithUkraineboth long-term & in times of crisis.
#UNSC | #UpholdUNCharter https://t.co/AA7LKSal7k
— SwedenUN (@SwedenUN) January 31, 2022
The Ukrainian crisis has further strengthened the position of the military. Vladimir Poutine by opposing the entry of Ukraine in NATO accentuates the tensions with the member countries of the organization of which Sweden. Swedish soldiers deployed on the island of Gotland, their strategic base in the Baltic Sea. But there is another phenomenon which has been less talked about and which is revealing: in January, during this crisis, almost 1,000 Swedes applied to join the National Guard, more than double the normal. This really shows that this support for the Swedish military is not just from the government.
Ireland want to be able to defend themselves
The Irish government is also encouraged to strengthen its defence, particularly to deal with the Russian threat. This is the result of a report by the Irish Defense Forces Commission which evokes the terrorist threat in the world but above all Russian activities. Moscow is indeed conducting exercises off the southern coast of the island, which, in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, is seen as a provocation. And the Irish state is clearly incapable of defending itself.
The finding is rather alarming: Ireland, this historically neutral country simply does not have a credible defense to protect itself in the event of foreign aggression. It would therefore take 24 combat aircraft to secure its airspace, whereas the country has none today. The Irish defense budget is the lowest in the European Union. In the event of foreign air intrusion, an agreement provides for the intervention of British forces. But the Irish no longer want to rely solely on their allies for protection.
The Report of the Commission on the Defense Force was published & launched today in the Defense Forces Training Centre.
Photos from the launch are available https://t.co/imdZuzfa1E pic.twitter.com/Vb5rMnTE5k
— Óglaigh na hÉireann (@defenceforces) February 9, 2022
The report also suggests that the Irish government should reinforce its naval fleet with 12 additional ships to cover its entire exclusive economic zone. It is in its waters that the training of the Russian army was initially to be held this month. They were moved in the face of opposition from the Foreign Secretary and some irate Irish fishermen.
But the problem is that Ireland faces a major shortage of personnel in the army. To navigate these boats or fly these planes would require 10,000 more men. Ireland clearly does not have them at the moment. Low wages and working conditions regularly denounced by the army have created a kind of vocations crisis. Hence this other mention in the report: Ireland is too committed to peacekeeping missions abroad.
The Ministry of Defense has spent nearly three million euros over the past five years to send its soldiers to the four corners of the world. Migrant rescue operations in the Mediterranean or UN missions in Africa, the Middle East and the Balkans. These interventions are very expensive since Ireland does not have its air fleet. In most cases, troops travel either on commercial flights or on charter planes. The report concludes that to deploy a truly operational army, Ireland would need to double or even triple its annual defense budget.