Sweden and Finland on NATO’s doorstep

The leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) formally launched the process of joining Sweden and Finland on Wednesday at their summit in Madrid. A direct consequence of the invasion of Ukraine, this decision marks a turning point on the European geopolitical scene. Here are four points to better understand the scope of the event.

Vincent Marcelin
The Press

Why do they want to join NATO?

The accession of the two Nordic countries to NATO, which must still be validated by the parliaments of the 30 Member States, breaks with the policy of neutrality which they have practiced for decades.

This position is particularly marked in Sweden, whose last participation in an armed conflict dates back to 1814. [des travailleurs] to vote on a resolution to request Sweden’s membership in NATO,” underlines Cyril Coulet, former researcher affiliated with the Swedish Institute of International Relations and specialist in the Nordic countries, in an interview with The Press.

According to Cyril Coulet, the “pragmatism” of the Swedish government in the face of the Russian invasion in Ukraine explains this decision. In Finland, membership of NATO has been obvious since the beginning of the war, while the country shares a border of 1300 km with Russia.

In the face of Vladimir Putin, “nothing beats the protection of NATO”, affirms Charles-Philippe David, founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in diplomatic studies, who compares the organization to “all-risk insurance”.

Why did Turkey have to agree?

The accession process, which requires the unanimous agreement of the Member States, has been hampered since mid-May by Turkey’s veto. This was finally lifted on Tuesday evening in exchange for the two conditions demanded by Ankara: the extradition of 33 people whom Turkey considers to be terrorists and the end of the restrictions on arms exports imposed by Finland and Sweden since 2019.

This agreement raises the concern of the Kurdish community and opponents of the Turkish regime who had received asylum in Sweden. On the other hand, it constitutes an important victory for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“The big winner is Erdoğan, believes Charles-Philippe David. With this agreement, Turkey is establishing itself as one of the major powers on the southern flank of Europe, maintaining good relations with NATO, but also with Putin. »

What does NATO gain by validating this membership?

Each of the two countries will provide the transatlantic organization with strategic military resources. While Sweden has a large defense base that already meets NATO standards, Finland is ready to provide logistical support to Western troops on Russia’s doorstep.

The membership of Sweden and Finland thus allows NATO to expand into Northern Europe in response to the Russian invasion. During the summit, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, also announced the deployment of American troops in different European countries, including Poland, Romania and the Baltic States.

For his part, the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, welcomed this agreement by directly questioning Vladimir Putin. Putin “hoped for less NATO on his Western front after his illegal invasion of Ukraine”, but “he was completely wrong”; “He gets more from NATO”, launched the political leader.

How will Russia react?

A Russian military response seems very unlikely, according to Charles-Philippe David. “Putin has other goals to accomplish in Ukraine. I don’t think that’s his main concern or that it’s in his best interest,” says the researcher.

The presence of Russian troops on the air and sea territory of the two countries cannot, however, be ruled out, he underlines. Various incidents of this type had erupted following the filing by Sweden and Finland of their candidatures for NATO, at the beginning of May.

The announcement of their membership sparked mixed reactions from the Kremlin. “There is nothing that could bother us from the point of view of Sweden and Finland joining NATO,” Vladimir Putin assured a press conference on Wednesday. The President then added: “In the event of the deployment of military contingents and military infrastructure there, we will be obliged to respond in a symmetrical way. »

Russia has so far denounced the aspirations of the two Nordic countries, seeing it in particular as a “destabilizing factor” for international affairs and security.