franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
The gap narrows slightly in the final measure of voting intentions before the second round, and Emmanuel Macron is 14 points ahead of his rival Marine Le Pen, according to our daily Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France, published Friday, April 22. Two days before the outcome of the 2022 presidential election, Emmanuel Macron is now credited with 57% of voting intentions, against 43% for Marine Le Pen (margin of error: 3.2 points).
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The evolution of vote transfers to the left is relatively stable. Among Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters in the first round, 33% lean towards Emmanuel Macron (-1 point) and 19% for Marine the pen (+1 point), while the proportion of those who do not express a choice (abstention, blank or null vote, do not wish to answer) is stable at 48%. Among Yannick Jadot’s voters, 63% now intend to vote for him (-2 points). 5% still intend to vote Navy the pen (=), and 32% express no choice (+2 points).
On the right and on the extreme right, the reports are more contrasted. Among Valérie Pécresse voters in the first round, it is still Emmanuel Macron who has the most intentions, with 48% (-1 point), but 25% now plan to vote Marine the pen (+12 points). The proportion of those who do not express a choice (abstention, blank or null vote, do not wish to answer) is also down sharply, to 27% (-11 points). Finally, the voters of Eric Zemmour in the first round now refer to 79% on Marine the pen (+7 points). Only 5% now plan to vote for Emmanuel Macron (-6 points). And the proportion of non-expressed is almost stable (16%, -1 point).
Two days before the second round of voting, 73.5% of French people questioned are sure that they will vote (range: between 71.5 and 75.5%). A figure which is progressing and is now approaching the participation in the first round (73.7%) but which is still slightly lower than the effective participation rate during the second round of the 2017 presidential election (74.6%).
With the approach of the vote, 12% of people certain to vote still do not express their intention to vote. And of those who are certain to vote, 89% say they have made their choice and that it will be final, while 11% believe that their vote can still change. Emmanuel Macron’s voters are by far the most certain of their choice: 96% (+1 point) say their choice is final, only 4% acknowledge that they can still change their minds. For Navy the penthe convinced are 89% (-3 points), the undecided are 11%.
Among those who intend to come on April 24 to vote blank or null, 58% say they are sure of their choice, and 42% of them say they can still change their minds.
Methodology. This Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Today in France is based on a total sample of 1,600 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over, questioned on April 22, 2022. The sample was questioned by internet and was made up according to the quota method (sex, age, profession of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region).