Sometimes, political commentators get carried away. It’s a bit like caribou: the first one jumps into the water, a few others follow, then the whole gang goes. That’s kind of what’s been happening since the surprise resignation of Pierre Fitzgibbon, who until this week was Minister of the Economy (subsidies) and Minister of Energy (Hydro-Québec). And, incidentally, of Montreal.
“Shock wave,” “hard blow,” “ship adrift.” Really? We can understand the opposition parties jumping at every opportunity to show that the government is in trouble, and sports commentators—sorry, politicians!—getting upset when a star player retires. But will “Fitz” really be missed by the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ)? Not sure.
It’s been a year since the CAQ took a real hit. The shipwreck began with the bad theatre surrounding the cancellation of the third link. It continued with the petty politics surrounding the by-election in Jean-Talon, and the slap in the face that resulted. The Prime Minister continued to dig the hole by resurrecting the stillborn under-river tunnel, and the Minister of Finance delivered the final blow by throwing millions at the Kings so they could play two exhibition games in Quebec City.
Since November 2023, polls have given the CAQ between 20 and 25% of the vote. It is possible that Fitz’s departure will hurt, especially if everyone repeats the same line. But it could also be the opposite.
Fitz is the guy who is always right, even when he is wrong, and who lets you know it in the most unpleasant way possible, as journalists who questioned his policies, his methods or his lack of transparency have learned.
He’s the guy who never has any doubts about anything, despite the Electric Lion, the Blue Basket and the flying whales.
This is the guy who, after being investigated six times by the Ethics Commissioner and receiving three reprimands, promised that “there are going to be more.”
This is the guy who talks about reducing the size of the car fleet and buys himself a motorcycle. This is the guy who goes pheasant hunting in his short pants with his millionaire friends. But don’t ask him who it was, it’s none of your business, even if his job is to sprinkle millions left and right (especially right).
This is the guy who invented the “forgivable loan”: to thank you for accepting a government loan on favorable terms, you are spared the full repayment.
This is the guy who admits that the demand for electricity is too high for what Quebec can offer in green energy, but who still gives discounts to companies that are jostling for position. (If you remind him that this is contrary to basic economic principles, he will tell you that you do not understand anything.)
He’s the guy who basically represents everything we hate about crony capitalism, a practice that favors companies that are well-known to politicians or that have good lobbyists.
Finally, this is the guy who, somewhat embarrassingly for the government, keeps repeating that we will have to raise electricity rates one day. Yes, our rates are the lowest in North America and that encourages us to waste. But no one wants to hear it.
We can add all this up and debate whether the frankness outweighs the abruptness, and whether the support of a portion of the electorate for Super-Fitz’s policies makes him more popular. It just so happens that this has been measured.
A poll showed that, regardless of what one thinks of its merits, 53% of Quebecers support the Northvolt project. But the same proportion disapproves of the way it was carried out. This is probably not unrelated to the minister’s attitude.
Among the CAQ ministers, only Éric Caire is more unpopular than Fitz. Even when we only consider the CAQ electorate, Super-Fitz does not appear on the list of the ten most liked ministers.
So, you’re telling me that a slightly slobbery, unpopular minister who doesn’t give a damn about what you think is a valuable asset to a government that has two years to rebuild its image? Maybe you’re ripe to head up Air Canada’s customer service department…
Even if the CAQ has managed to establish its “party of the economy” discourse in the media, it has never been its stock-in-trade. What has led and kept the CAQ in power is identity: immigration, language, and a stretched conception of secularism.
François Legault tried twice to become premier by betting on the economy, in 2012 and 2014. He even wrote a book detailing his vision. It didn’t work. In 2018, he took no risks and bet on our identity fears: fewer immigrants, a values test and a ban on religious symbols for certain government employees.
The same game plan was applied in 2022, when Mr. Legault considered the idea of welcoming more than 50,000 immigrants “suicidal” (even though his government did so), and his outgoing Minister of Immigration maintained that 80% of immigrants “do not work, do not speak French, or do not adhere to the values of Quebec society.”
It was neither true nor subtle, but the message got through. Do “strange people” bother you? Vote CAQ.
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The replacement of Pierre Fitzgibbon by Christine Fréchette does not make economic development through discretionary subsidies a good idea, from a strictly public policy perspective. If it were, Quebec would be the richest province, but that is another story.
But on a purely political level, replacing the super-noisy minister will allow the CAQ to drag around one less ball and chain. The economic policies will not change, but the minister who will sell them will be less abrupt and will get on voters’ nerves less. It is difficult to imagine how this could harm the government, whatever the media caribou say.