Summary of fall work in Ottawa | From one crisis to another

A conservative jump in the polls, inflation that continues to give headaches to the liberals and a major visit that turns into a nightmare. The MPs’ vacation is fast approaching, and there will probably be few who complain about these six weeks away from Ottawa. Summary of a busy autumn.

Surveys

The Liberals’ slide in the polls began in July, when Pierre Poilievre ditched his prescription glasses and replaced them with Ray-Bans and traveled the country to hammer home the housing crisis. “If, after Christmas, the Conservative lead of 14 or 15 percentage points becomes the norm, be careful,” warns Philippe J. Fournier, creator of the poll aggregator 338 Canada. Pay attention to what? “Justin Trudeau may repeat that he wants to run again, but ultimately, it’s not his call. It is not true that a government can rule for two years when dissatisfaction rates are so high,” he argues.

Meta

For the past few months, Facebook and Instagram users have had access to a variety of cat videos on their feed. Canadian news content, for its part, has disappeared from Meta platforms: ulcerated by the adoption of Online News Act (Bill C-18), the web giant blocked access to this content. “Unreasonable, irresponsible,” railed Minister Pablo Rodriguez, responsible for the file at the time, announcing a freeze on government advertising purchases on these social networks. The law is not yet in force; it will be on December 19.

Reshuffle

Two thirds of ministers have changed portfolio. Others, like David Lametti, Marco Mendicino and Mona Fortier, were dispossessed. And about half a dozen, including Soraya Martinez Ferrada, entered the Holy of Holies. It was July 26, in the middle of summer. “In terms of visibility, doing a reshuffle in July is perhaps a doom and gloom,” said political scientist Thierry Giasson of Laval University. The card reshuffling operation has failed, according to him: “There is an attrition of power; people start wanting something else. »

Grocery store

We had the impression of witnessing a parade of suspects: one after the other, the bosses of the five major grocery chains passed in front of the journalists gathered in the lobby of an Ottawa building. They had been summoned by Minister François-Philippe Champagne to take stock of the cost of the grocery basket. “We had a great public relations exercise,” according to Geneviève Tellier, professor at the University of Ottawa. But basically, the grocery store “illustrates the problem the government faces in many issues: it’s not its fault if there is inflation, but people want action,” she says. .

Zelensky

The visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky promised to be a highlight of the fall session of Parliament. To be so, she was – but not for the right reasons. “The President of Ukraine and the Prime Minister of Canada salute a former member of the infamous 14^e SS Division,” wrote RT, a Kremlin state media outlet. The presence of Yaroslav Hunka at Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech, which reinvigorated the Russian propaganda machine, cost Anthony Rota his position as Speaker of the House. The “Yaroslav Hunka scandal” now has its Wikipedia page.

Modi

“We had no choice but to protect our people and withdraw them,” Justin Trudeau said in an interview, speaking of the withdrawal of 41 Canadian diplomats whom India threatened to strip of their immunity. This is one of the sanctions imposed on Canada by the Indian government after the Prime Minister alleged that New Delhi sponsored the execution of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The case took a new turn at the end of November, when the United States published the indictment in which the Modi government is accused of having hatched a plot to assassinate a Sikh leader.

Interference

If the issue of Chinese interference dominated the political spring of 2023, it disappeared from the radar screens this fall. At the beginning of September, the Trudeau government entrusted Judge Marie-Josée Hogue with the reins of a commission of inquiry about which it a priori wanted to know nothing. “I expect that the state of the situation will be communicated to us as best as possible, and that his work will make it possible to depoliticize, to decentralize, this debate that the conservatives are trying to exploit,” hopes Thierry Giasson. The magistrate, who started work on September 18, must present an interim report by February 29, 2024.

Carbon

“Justin Trudeau is failing. » Pierre Poilievre received a Christmas present in October, when the Prime Minister opened a breach in his carbon pricing system. “It weakens the very principle of the program. Once in the atmosphere, a ton of greenhouse gases has the same impact, regardless of the sector,” argues Professor Pierre-Olivier Pineau of HEC Montreal. Politically, the exemption has given the Conservatives renewed vigor – we saw this in the Commons when they wanted to “ruin Justin Trudeau’s Christmas” with a night of voting.

Debt

The debt burden was one of the highlights of the economic update tabled at the end of November by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. We learned that debt costs would increase from 35 billion in 2022-2023 to 58.7 billion in 2027-2028. Professor Geneviève Tellier is one of those who see no cause for alarm: “For me, the figures are not worrying. We are very far from the figures of the 1980s and 1990s. It is completely manageable at the moment. » The Liberals continue to argue that they are “fiscally responsible”, which the opposition disputes.