“Everyone here is worried and in shock. Nobody believes that anything positive will result from the current situation,” summarizes in an interview with The duty Sona, a former resident of Stepanakert, capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, this self-proclaimed republic mainly occupied by Armenians and on which the Azerbaijani army launched a new offensive two days ago.
“The Azeris have wanted to take control of this territory for 30 years,” adds Sona, who, with her family, left Nagorno-Karabakh, called Artsakh by the Armenians, at the beginning of the summer. The pressure of a blockade imposed by Baku on the only road, the Lachin Corridor, connecting the enclave to Armenia, where she now lives, made life unbearable. “I’m waiting to hear from people who stayed there, but we haven’t had contact for several days. The war has started again and it is not going to end there,” adds the young woman, who prefers to protect her identity, worried about the history that is currently being written before her eyes in her region.
Nearly three years after a 44-day blitzkrieg that weakened Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh and led to a fragile peace, Azerbaijan now seems determined to continue its plan to retake the territory. On Wednesday, during a televised speech to his nation, the Azerbaijani president, the autocrat Ilham Aliev, bluntly affirmed that his country had “reestablished its sovereignty” over the enclave, following a armed offensive launched the day before and which, this time, lasted only 24 hours.
Earlier today, the parties signed a ceasefire agreement, opening the door to peace talks whose outcome cannot, in the current context, be favorable to the Armenians of the region, believes Tigrane Yegavian , specialist in local geopolitics and professor at Schiller University in Paris.
“I don’t see any other scenarios than that of a massive departure of civilians towards Armenia,” he said in an interview with The duty. The balance of power is clearly favorable to the Azerbaijani side. Azerbaijan does not want to make any concessions on the ground and is not willing to recognize any status or cultural autonomy for the indigenous Armenian population of Artsakh. »
He adds: “The inhabitants of the enclave have no other choice than the suitcase or the coffin. »
The new Armenian tragedy which has been playing out since the beginning of the week in Nagorno-Karabakh is the culmination of a hybrid war launched after its 2020 offensive by Baku against the self-proclaimed republic to weaken the territory and force its integration into Azeri territory.
To achieve its ends, Azerbaijan took advantage of the blockade it imposed on the Lachin corridor since last December, thus threatening the lives and supplies of food and medicine of the 120,000 people living in the enclave.
Russian complicity
Ironically, the free movement of people and goods on this only access route with Armenia was to be ensured by Russian forces, responsible for maintaining peace in the region for three years. Forces diverted from their mission partly by the war in Ukraine, but also by the strategic rapprochement initiated between the Azerbaijani power and the Kremlin in recent years. “We are talking here about passivity as well as Russia’s complicity,” says Tigrane Yegavian.
Abandoned by Armenia, which decided not to launch its troops into the conflict, the separatists of Nagorno-Karabakh were forced to capitulate and accept an agreement with Baku, which provides for “the withdrawal of the remaining units and soldiers of the Armed Forces of Armenia” as well as “the dissolution and complete disarmament of the formations of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army [autre nom donné à l’enclave] “.
On Thursday, a meeting between the parties is planned in the Azerbaijani town of Yevlakh, to begin the first talks on the “reintegration” of this territory into Azerbaijan.
Nagorno-Karabakh is considered a central region in the history of Armenia. The enclave took advantage of the fall of the USSR in 1991 to proclaim its independence, with the support of Yerevan. Armenians represent 75% of the population.
“After having undermined any effort of resistance and resilience of the local population with the blockade, Baku is on the way to achieving its second objective: cutting Artsakh off from Armenia by obtaining from the latter recognition of its full sovereignty over the Armenian enclave,” continues Tigrane Yegavian, who does not foresee anything good for the future.
What is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh, “it’s called ethnic cleansing,” he said, “no more and no less, with all the consequences that implies on people’s lives and on the multi-millennial Armenian heritage that exists in this region.
The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, called on Azerbaijan on Wednesday to “guarantee the rights and security” of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, while France requested the urgent convening of the UN Security Council on Thursday .
“ [Paris] has always supported and supports a negotiated solution guaranteeing the Armenian populations of Nagorno-Karabakh their right to live in peace while respecting their history, while respecting their culture,” indicated the French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Catherine Colonna. “This guarantee cannot result from a diktat,” she added, stressing that her country would hold Azerbaijan “responsible for the fate of the populations”.
On Wednesday, Russian peacekeeping forces in the region said they had participated in the evacuation of more than 3,100 civilians, including nearly 1,500 children, the Kremlin said. Moscow also assured that the ceasefire was indeed respected.
With Agence France-Presse