The armed factions which have been fighting for five months for control of Sudan continue, without succeeding in asserting themselves, to cross swords while the humanitarian crisis caused by the confrontation worsens.
What there is to know
The military conflict between two generals who have been fighting for power for five months does not seem any closer to being resolved, even if we are witnessing a form of “stabilization” of positions on the ground.
The situation appears particularly worrying in Darfur, in the west of the country, where the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (FSR) are accused of carrying out abuses against non-Arab populations that amount to a form of ethnic cleansing.
The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate and forces the return to South Sudan of hundreds of thousands of people who had sought refuge further north to escape the civil war that broke out in the country in 2013.
“There is a balance of forces currently… I do not foresee a rapid end to the fighting,” notes Marc Lavergne, a country specialist attached to the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France, in an interview.
Both in the capital, Khartoum, and in the rest of the country, we are witnessing a form of “stabilization” of military positions without the possibility of negotiations looming, notes the analyst.
PHOTO ARCHIVES AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Fighting between armed factions vying for control of Sudan has damaged several infrastructures in Khartoum, such as the Greater Nile Petroleum Oil Company tower, last month.
Marie Lamensch, project coordinator at the Montreal Institute for Genocide and Human Rights Studies at Concordia University, also sees no possible outcome for the moment to the conflict, which has caused more 7,000 deaths and led to the displacement of 5 million people, including 1 million outside the country.
“Neither side wants to give up power,” notes Mme Lamensch, who is particularly alarmed by the situation in Darfur, where the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (FSR) are increasing their abuses.
Mr. Lavergne notes that the leader of the FSR, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti”, undertook for strategic purposes to ensure control of this entire vast region in the west of the country.
PHOTO MOHAMED NURELDIN ABDALLAH, REUTERS ARCHIVES
General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo
His men drove out the forces of the regular army of his enemy, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and resumed, with the support of local militias, the “ethnic cleansing” efforts launched in the early 2000s against non-Arab populations.
The bloody conflict led to former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who was deposed in 2019 following a popular uprising, being indicted for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court.
Several human rights organizations have raised the alarm about the situation in Darfur in recent months, including Amnesty International, which sees “terrifying similarities” with the war fought 20 years ago.
America’s dilemma
The United States, Great Britain and Norway condemned in August the “killings based on ethnicity and sexual violence” perpetrated by the RSF while noting that it was necessary to find a “negotiated solution” to the conflict tearing apart the country.
Mr. Lavergne notes that the situation in Sudan represents a serious dilemma for the US administration, since the United Arab Emirates, an allied country, actively supports the paramilitaries and supplies them with weapons from neighboring Chad.
Washington does not want to alienate the small country, but also, he says, does not want to offend Saudi Arabia, which takes a dim view of its neighbor’s regional ambitions.
Paris also remains silent on the situation even if the ethnic cleansing efforts underway in Darfur occur near Chad, where French military forces are based, notes the CNRS specialist.
PHOTO ZOHRA BENSEMRA, REUTERS ARCHIVES
Aerial view of makeshift shelters used by Sudanese who fled Darfur to Adre, Chad.
Western countries have not taken into account what a possible victory of the RSF could mean, particularly for regional security, he said.
Marie Lamensch notes that the United States is too busy with China and the war in Ukraine and does not have effective leverage to restore calm to the heart of a country and a continent where it has lost a lot of influence.
Mr. Lavergne believes that Western countries should, in the current context, reaffirm their support for Sudanese civil society, which played a central role in the fall of Omar al-Bashir during demonstrations that led to the creation of a transitional government including the military.
The exercise ended definitively after the two feuding generals, long-time rivals, decided in April to settle their dispute by force of arms.
“From one disaster to another”
While awaiting an improbable outcome to the conflict, humanitarian organizations are increasing their warnings about the situation of the affected populations.
PHOTO EL TAYEB SIDDIG, REUTERS ARCHIVES
Residents of Omdurman, Sudan, wait for food aid to be distributed.
The World Food Program (WFP) warned on Tuesday that hundreds of thousands of refugees who left South Sudan to escape the civil war that broke out in the country in 2013 have made the opposite journey over the past five months.
The situation on the border with Sudan is reaching a “critical point”, noted Mary-Ellen McGroarty, a local WFP official, on Tuesday.
“We see families moving from one disaster to another, fleeing danger only to find themselves facing despair in South Sudan,” she warned.