When repairing a gas leak looks like using gas… Three of the four gas leaks in the Baltic Sea stopped this weekend. The last, smaller, on Nord Stream 1, is still active at the beginning of the week. The investigation into the responsibilities for the alleged sabotage can therefore begin.
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Two suspicious explosions took place on Monday, September 26, according to several seismological institutes. They were located in international waters off the Danish island of Bornholm, but within the respective exclusive economic zones of the two Scandinavian countries. Four leaks were observed above the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. Not operational at the time of the events due to the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the two gas pipelines were still filled with gas for technical reasons. Subject of all suspicions, Russia counter-attacked Wednesday, pointing the United States and obtaining a meeting of the UN Security Council. Washington denounced in return a new operation of “disinformation”.
Objects of geopolitical showdown in recent months, Saturday, October 1, Russia, owner of the gas pipelines, sent a ship, as well as Sweden and Denmark, whose territorial waters are concerned. Germany and Poland, with threatened energy interests, also want to participate. That’s a lot of people on the ground, for an operation that promises to be delicate.
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Examining gas pipes 80 meters deep requires advanced equipment. Specifically, a mini-submarine, or a mini-drone, capable not only of filming the size of the hole caused by the explosion, but also of taking samples of sand from an area equivalent to three football pitches, in which could find traces of explosives or fragments of bombs, so that they can be analysed. Underwater explosions equivalent to “hundreds of pounds” from TNT are the source of the leaks and “all available information indicates that these explosions were the result of a deliberate acté”, had indicated Sweden and Denmark in an official report submitted to the United Nations.
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Problem: among the actors concerned, only Russia has this type of equipment and could therefore argue that it is up to it to carry out the operations. However, in view of the suspicions that weigh on the responsibility of the Russians in the sabotage of the gas pipelines, the Danes and the Swedes will probably prefer to borrow equipment from the Americans, themselves accused by Moscow of being involved in the sabotage.
The fear also remains that evidence that could incriminate one or the other will be destroyed. The Danes said they began their search without giving further details. But without coordination, without agreement on the procedure to follow, the operation could well fall apart, or worse, bring contradictory answers. Evidence of the tension on the spot: Monday, October 3, Sweden blocked access to a five nautical mile zone in the Baltic Sea leak sector, speaking of a “crime scene“.