(Paris) Nearly a quarter of the world’s population is threatened by major floods, with poor countries in the front line, according to a study published on Tuesday.
Posted at 6:47 a.m.
The study, published in the scientific journal NatureCommunicationscombined data on flood risk from rivers, rainfall and the sea, with World Bank data on population distribution and poverty.
It shows that about 1.81 billion people, or 23% of the world’s population, are directly exposed to 100-year floods of more than 15 centimeters. Of these, 780 million live on less than $5.50 a day.
East and South Asia, with China and India in particular, have 1.24 billion inhabitants affected by this threat.
“This poses major risks to lives and livelihoods, especially for the most vulnerable populations,” according to the study. Nearly 90% of those exposed live in poor or middle-income countries.
According to the researchers, about 12% of the world’s GDP in 2020 is in risk areas. But considering only the monetary aspect can create a bias by focusing attention on rich countries and economic centers, they warn.
“Low-income countries are disproportionately exposed to flood risk and are more vulnerable to disastrous long-term impacts,” finds the study by Jun Rentschler of the World Bank and colleagues.
This study provides “the first global assessment between exposure to flood risk and poverty”, notes Thomas McDermott, of the National University of Galway in Ireland, in a commentary published in Nature Communications.
Climate change and poorly designed urbanization are expected to compound these risks in the years to come, the researchers warn.
Unprecedented floods hit China in June, with more than 500,000 people preemptively displaced. Heavy monsoon rains killed more than 100 people in Bangladesh the same month and led to floods that left more than seven million people in dire straits.
According to scientists, climate change is making sudden downpours more frequent and intense across the globe.