The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised its nuclear production projections for the second year in a row, as the atom has experienced renewed interest against a backdrop of the energy crisis and climate change.
Under the impact of these two factors, “governments are rethinking their portfolios in favor of nuclear energy”, writes the UN body in a press release. They thus hope to secure their energy supply, while “the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions and the conflict in Ukraine have disrupted flows and caused a surge in prices”.
In the most favorable scenario, the IAEA predicts more than doubling of the installed power, which would climb to 873 gigawatts (GW) in 2050 against 390 GW currently. It was previously betting on 792 GW. But “to achieve this, many challenges must be overcome”, warns the Agency, citing “regulatory and industrial harmonization”. It also mentions the need to make “progress in the management of high-level radioactive waste”, which are non-recyclable materials from the processing of spent fuel from power plants.
Nuclear energy provides around 10% of the world’s electricity, compared to 37% for coal, the “dominant energy source”. The share of solar and wind has grown rapidly in recent years, from minus 1% in 1980 to 9% in 2021.
Last year, the IAEA increased its projections for the first time since the Fukushima disaster in 2011. If this accident had dealt a severe blow to the sector, nuclear power has begun to come back into favor with the climate argument. Its proponents point out that it is a very low-carbon energy source.2 and controllable, that is to say which can be mobilized according to needs, unlike the wind or the sun.
And this trend has accelerated with the current energy crisis. In August, Japan announced the launch of a reflection on the possible construction of new generation nuclear reactors. Other countries on the path to disengagement have turned around, such as Belgium, which wants to extend two reactors for ten years. The debate also agitates Germany, which was to close the last three at the end of 2022.
For now, Berlin has simply agreed to keep two plants on standby until spring 2023 to deal with possible emergencies.