A deadly explosion on Tuesday in Poland near the border with Ukraine put NATO and its members on the alert after a day punctuated by dozens of Russian missile fire.
Kyiv claimed that Moscow had voluntarily struck for the first time since the beginning of the conflict the territory of a member country of the Atlantic Alliance, speaking of a “Russian missile attack against collective security”.
“It’s a very significant escalation. We must act,” pleaded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as Russia called “provocations” media reports suggesting that Russian fire had hit a Polish village a few kilometers from the Ukrainian border, killing two people.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said a “most likely” Russian-made missile was behind the blast, but it was still too early to determine where it was fired from. . He added that it was probably an “isolated” incident unlikely to happen again.
His warning about the source of the shot suggests that the head of state did not exclude the possibility that it could have come accidentally from Ukrainian territory. Kyiv, which immediately rejected the hypothesis, has surface-to-air missiles of Russian origin.
US President Joe Biden added to the questioning later that evening by saying it seemed ‘unlikely’, given the missile’s trajectory, that it was fired from Russia. . “But we’ll see,” he tempered, according to the Associated Press.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced earlier that the alert level of his country’s armed forces had been raised pending the outcome of the investigation.
Warsaw has multiplied exchanges with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the United States and several European countries which, in the majority of cases, were limited publicly to insisting on the need to clarify what is is produced.
The Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, underlined in this vein on Twitter that “it was important to establish the facts well”.
The US government also reacted at first with reserve, confining itself to saying that checks were in progress, before Joe Biden, who is in Bali as part of the G20 summit, wonders about the place of where the missile had been fired. He made his remarks after an emergency meeting with members of the G7.
A Russian attack on a NATO member, if proven, could theoretically lead to the invocation of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty that all member countries collectively regard themselves as attacked and can retaliate. .
PHOTO KEVIN LAMARQUE, REUTERS
Joe Biden, President of the United States, at the G20
unlikely scenario
However, the scenario was considered very unlikely by analysts consulted on Tuesday by The Press.
Member countries will not go to war with Russia even if they come to the conclusion that Moscow deliberately struck, with limited impact, on Polish territory, underlined Mark Cancian, a specialist in military issues attached to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in Washington.
We should rather expect, in such a context, the reinforcement of the military presence of the Atlantic Alliance in Eastern Europe as well as increased military aid to Ukraine.
If it is more of an accidental event attributable to Russia, a harsh denunciation of Moscow’s “irresponsibility” is to be expected, but there will be no aggressive action on the part of NATO. , warns Mr. Cancian.
This scenario is more likely, he noted, since some Russian missiles are inaccurate and may have malfunctioned, crossing the border off course.
“I see no reason for Russia to launch such an attack now on Polish soil. The risk for [elle] is high,” concluded Mr. Cancian, who was interviewed before President Biden’s exit.
Pierre Jolicoeur, vice-rector for research at the Royal Military College Saint-Jean, also declared before the intervention of the American head of state, that a Russian voluntary strike could not be excluded and that the sequence of events would depend on the “interpretation” that the States concerned will make of the situation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may, he says, have wanted to send the message that his country retains significant military capabilities even though it has just suffered a major setback with the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian city of Kherson .
PHOTO REUTERS
Rescuers at the scene of the explosion
Member countries, led by the United States, will seek to analyze all available information to try to reach a definitive conclusion and set their course of action, he concluded.
A consensual decision needed
Justin Massie, a specialist in security and defense issues attached to the University of Quebec in Montreal, indicated on Tuesday that it was unlikely that Poland would seek to invoke Article 5 if Russia is ultimately implicated.
Such a measure would require a consensual decision from the members of the organization and would probably not obtain the required support, notes the researcher, who leans towards the hypothesis of an accidental shooting.
The invocation of Article 4 of the Treaty, which provides for the holding of a consultation of all NATO members when one of the participating States considers that its security is threatened, seems more relevant in the circumstances, he noted.
NATO confirmed that an emergency meeting bringing together all the ambassadors of the member countries would be held this Wednesday in accordance with Poland’s wishes.
“It’s the reasonable thing to do at this point,” Cancian said.
With Agence France-Presse
separate articles
Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty provides that a consultation involving all the member countries of the organization must be conducted when one of them considers that its security or territorial integrity is threatened. Article 5 goes further by enshrining the principle of collective defence. It provides that an armed attack against a NATO member country will be considered an attack against all member countries and will allow them to take the measures they deem necessary to come to its aid. It has only been invoked once by NATO, after the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States.