Will the island of Taiwan be the Ukraine of China? Will it precipitate a confrontation between Chinese and Americans? President Biden said yesterday that if Beijing decides to invade, like Russia does Ukraine, the United States will resolutely engage with Taiwan.
Faced with such a possibility, both terrible and plausible, Joe Biden envisages more than what has been done so far in Ukraine: in his words, it would then be a direct intervention by the American army.
The caution that characterized the American response in Ukraine – solidarity, delivery of multiple and generous aid in coordination with NATO… but no “boots on the ground” – would it be lost in the face of China? In various statements over the past nine months, Washington has seemed to break with the principle of “strategic ambiguity” which for decades has defined its position on the Taiwan question.
The question, yesterday, came from the mouth of an American journalist: “In the event of an invasion of Taiwan by China, would you be ready to engage militarily alongside Taiwan? To which Biden replied, “Yes, that is our commitment. Adding: “The idea that Taiwan can be taken by force is not appropriate. […] and would lead to the dislocation of an entire region […] like in Ukraine. »
Yet he also said — twice rather than once — that Washington still recognizes the “one China” principle.
Apparent contradiction, although one can say: “One day in the very long term, Beijing and Taipei will find a way to get along and realize this principle. But in the meantime, the Taiwanese are in no hurry, they value their autonomy, their democratic system, their freedom of expression, etc. And we Americans help them do that. »
Strategic ambiguity… We recognize Beijing diplomatically, but not Taipei. We sign a document on the principle of “one China” … but we deepen economic exchanges, cultural ties, we provide several billion in military supplies each year. The American Institute in Taipei has five floors and 550 employees, political, military, consular services… but no, it’s not an embassy!
What’s new with Biden is the repeated assertion — at least three times in the past nine months — that Washington could translate its solidarity on the ground.
Yet there is no equivalent of NATO’s Article 5 here, or a bilateral defense treaty, like Washington signed with Tokyo and Seoul. But Joe Biden virtually speaks as if there is one.
The presidential word is not worth a treaty… but when it is reiterated in this way, it ends up committing you. With a sub-question: “Will you have the means and the determination for what you are advancing, if ever…? »
Yesterday, Beijing reacted in a tactically measured way: “We urge the United States to remain cautious, in order to avoid causing damage in the Taiwan Strait and in Sino-American relations. Even if we know that, basically, the Chinese determination to one day take back Taiwan, by force if necessary, this determination is total, intransigent, ideologically ferocious.
Ukraine-Taiwan: two different strategic situations (Taiwan, a small island 11,000 km from Los Angeles; Ukraine, an extended territory glued to Europe), but with similarities in the face of the touchy and dominating “big brother”.
Taiwan in the Chinese imagination is the Ukraine of the Russians. The same so-called birthright. The same “That’s ours!” The same denial in the face of national difference, dug over the decades. The same refusal of the autonomy of the Other…
In February and March, in Beijing, we must have been tempted: wouldn’t the attention diverted by Ukraine allow us to go there quickly to take advantage of it? In April and May, on the contrary, one may wonder… if the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians is not a foretaste of what awaits us, if we invade now?
There is no doubt that Chinese strategists are weighing all these questions today…
François Brousseau is an international affairs columnist at Ici Radio-Canada. [email protected]