Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s formal endorsement of Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre last week caused a lot of ink to flow. Revenge tactic against his former adversary Jean Charest or proof of the rise of Trumpism? Everyone has their own idea about the motivations that led to this unexpected exit.
Could it be that the former leader of the Conservative Party simply acted for what he thinks is best for his party? We know that a leadership race is sometimes a difficult exercise for the unity of a political formation. Months of debates bring to light sometimes profound ideological differences, thereby undermining the cohesion of the organization, especially when this fight is tight.
The former Prime Minister surely knows something about it. One of the best examples came during the race for his succession. Remember that Andrew Scheer had the upper hand over his rival Maxime Bernier after an endless 13-round ballot! Bernier then played the free electrons for some time before leaving the Conservatives for good to found the People’s Party, which now undermines the right flank of his former party.
Stephen Harper may believe he can avoid this scenario and believes that his exit will facilitate the elective process. Either by reducing the number of laps if the race is tight between Poilievre and Charest, or else by offering a convincing victory to his runner-up on the first lap if he already enjoys, according to him, a comfortable lead. The goal is to avoid at all costs a victory obtained in the snatch in order to nip in the bud the idea of a new political formation rallying the progressive-conservatives which would further fragment the right-wing vote.
Especially since the salvation of the Conservative Party does not necessarily lie at the center. Remember that this was Erin O’Toole’s strategy during the last election. The centrist from Ontario failed to do better than his pro-life counterpart Andrew Scheer before him, even as the latter got bogged down in his stance surrounding abortion during a televised debate.
Mr. Harper may have come to the conclusion that the potential gains at the center are reaching their limits and that if this is the case, it is better to offer voters an assumed Conservative option allowing them to fill up the votes in the traditional Conservative pool. . This maneuver would at the same time undermine the development potential of Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party before it settles permanently in the Canadian political landscape, which an offer that is too centrist risks favoring even more.
One only has to hope then that the wear and tear of the Liberal Party naturally favors the alternation of power and that the oratory skills of the candidate Poilievre are sufficient to offer a resolutely conservative speech to the voters while avoiding the quagmire of equivocal positions. on the questions that still haunt his formation to take power. A bet that is not won in advance, but which nevertheless remains playable.