The road to victory will not be without pitfalls for Jean Charest, if he decides to embark on the race for the Conservative leadership. Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper will not put a spoke in his wheels this time, has learned The duty. But party members will not welcome him with open arms, predict sources in the movement.
Two camps seem to be preparing to clash in the race to succeed Erin O’Toole: those nostalgic for a more progressive-conservative party and the heirs of the Canadian Alliance who do not want a refocusing.
This second group will not be able to count on the intervention of Stephen Harper. If the former federal prime minister had prepared to block the road to Jean Charest, when the latter had flirted with the idea of being a candidate two years ago, he will remain on the sidelines this year, according to a source close to him.
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“He withdrew completely from politics and the party,” said this person. Mr. Harper found that it was not beneficial to his professional career or his former training that he still played his influence. “He is no longer involved at all and he will not be involved”, estimates this source. And this, even if Mr. Charest – against whom he had retained a certain grudge, when the two men were prime ministers – was officially a candidate.
The entourage of Mr. Charest confided to the Duty this week that he is seriously considering running for the party leadership.
But the membership of the Conservative Party, more to the right than its electoral base, may not be very favorable to his candidacy, sense former strategists still close to the party.
“There is no chance that the current members of the CCP will elect him as their leader,” said one of these sources bluntly. “Conservatives want a real conservative, with conservative principles,” explains this person. The Progressive Conservatives, or Red Tories, “are just liberals with a different face.”
Another ex-strategist agrees. Many CPC members do not know Jean Charest, do not remember his career in the former Progressive Conservative Party in the 1990s, see him more as a Quebec Liberal and would associate him with the turf wars of the past between the PPC and the Canadian Alliance.
“People in the West are going to freak out if he gets serious about it,” the longtime curator believes.
A risk of fracture
What’s more, these two former senior strategists believe that the election of a Progressive Conservative leader would lead to a split in the party.
“If you bet on growth that goes through the Progressive Conservative fringe, you will lose the Conservatives you already have,” says our second strategist. “The Conservative Party purists won’t get involved anymore. And losing them would be a huge problem. »
Our first source nods. “A so-called Progressive Conservative will be so out of step with the members that the coalition will continue to dissolve under the leadership of someone like Jean Charest,” drops this Conservative. “And support for the People’s Party of Canada [de Maxime Bernier] would continue to grow, as would its share of the electorate. »
Quebec Conservatives — including the majority of MPs — are however loud and clear for a new Progressive Conservative leader.
“We can keep banging our heads against the wall and always doing the same thing. Or we can try to be pragmatic,” retorts another former strategist who remains involved in the party.
This Conservative recognizes that Jean Charest would not have it easy, but he sees “a road to victory” which would include courting the Conservatives of Quebec, the Maritimes and Ontario where the former Quebec Premier could encourage a lot of interest according to him.
The Conservatives of English Canada may believe that a Progressive Conservative leader would sign the death warrant of the merged party in 2004, Quebecers them hammer that it is the opposite that will divide them.
“I want someone who is Progressive Conservative, who is going to save the Conservative Party. Because it’s two solitudes. And we are going towards a split, otherwise, ”repeated MP Joël Godin again on Friday.
“We must avoid the breakup of the party by isolating Quebec, which obviously has a more progressive political philosophy,” commented another member of the caucus.
The race is likely to accelerate next week, since those close to Jean Charest predict that he will then announce his decision.
However, it will be without knowing the rules of the game. Because the party will announce next week the members of the organizing committee of the race, according to our information, but they will still take a few weeks before announcing the terms.