The immigration debate is heating up. We find the unconditional champions of immigration on one side and the proponents of the great replacement theory and its variants on the other. If these visions seem irreconcilable, the fact remains that they respond to and water down each other. Furthermore, both approaches also err in treating this subject in isolation, without reframing it in a broader demographic context.
From the outset, let us emphasize that the defenders of immigration have the unfortunate reflex of attacking their adversaries, of reducing them to unscrupulous racists. They give themselves the moral high ground, but knowingly neglect to consider the problems that we are creating abroad by promoting the exodus of active populations.
Unlike proponents of a hard cap on immigration, its proponents have the merit of acknowledging the demographic challenges facing our depopulating nations. They mean it when they say that America has benefited greatly from the contribution of newcomers and will continue to do so. However, they delude themselves by assimilating mass immigration to a panacea.
Faithful to the nuanced approach of the people they represent, Quebec elected officials adopted a unanimous motion that recognizes the essential contribution of immigration while firmly opposing the “initiative of the century” pushed by McKinsey.
As critics of Canada of 100 million point out, no matter how culturally robust the host society is, welcoming so many people would pose integration challenges. What’s more, such a wave would undoubtedly increase the pressure on services, infrastructure and housing, while we are already struggling to meet the needs. In this sense, it is clear that arbitrary growth is in no way equivalent to natural growth, which we should privilege.
However, the question of the birth rate is a subject passed over in silence, even taboo. As proof, the announcement of a drop of 4200 births curiously raised no eyebrows. It must be said that the myth of overpopulation is firmly anchored. The fear that the planet cannot sustain population growth is widespread among young people. However, this fear now appears unfounded and deleterious since the data indicate that we are instead tipping towards a demographic implosion. This will lead to upheavals for which we are ill-prepared. In this context, we must begin a serious reflection on the birth rate, work and ageing.
Quebec can pride itself on having implemented excellent work-family balance measures. Although there is room for improvement, the QPIP and the CPE network greatly improve the lives of parents. The first could also be extended for families who do not have access to the second. That said, this type of policy does not have a noticeable impact on the fertility rate. Despite everything, the state will always be confined to this supporting role, because women are rightly allergic to any form of reproductive diktat.
To this end, the documentary Birth Gap overturns received ideas. The data indicate that the drastic fall in fertility in developed countries is not linked to the proportion of people who choose not to give birth or to the number of children per family, both of which have remained stable. The fall would rather be attributable to the phenomenon that the documentary maker calls involuntary infertility. Several factors explain this. The first concerns the age-old tendency to postpone the age of conception. For decades, girls and boys have been brought up with the same individual goals: to prioritize studies, which are constantly lengthening, and professional advancement. In doing so, we deny certain biological realities that our daughters should be aware of in order to make informed decisions. Endocrine disruptors also play a role that deserves to be elucidated and prevented. Finally, the meteoric rise in isolation and celibacy is a determining factor, sadly neglected. The multiplication of social activities dedicated to young people could counter this fragmentation.
As we have seen, the inversion of the demographic pyramid accelerates shortages. The government is reacting well: the supervision of child labor and the reform of social assistance are to be welcomed. Inevitably, Quebec will have to make work even more fiscally attractive. The changes to the QPP represent a good measure to encourage retirees to return to the job market. Flexibility and efficiency will be the watchwords.
Finally, our aging societies will have to adapt their living environments and increase the leisure offer tenfold to keep our seniors happy and healthy. Increased support for caregivers, the authorization of bigenerational housing and hospitalization at home are essential projects, because institutional places will inevitably run out.
Depopulation will put our social safety net to the test. Only the revitalization of the social fabric can counterbalance it.