My current losing streak with National Hockey League (NHL) picks is the perfect time to tell you about the most common mistake amateur bettors make: focusing WAY TOO MUCH on recent results.
Let me share a true story. During the summer of 2022, my baseball picks were all the rage on YouTube. Over a 21-day span, we racked up 18 wins and 3 losses, although we picked up plenty of underdogs along the way.
Then I lost two predictions in a row. The hateful comments started again on YouTube.
After a third consecutive defeat, several bad comments appeared:
–“Your choices are crap.”
–“You are the worst sports betting expert in the world.”
–“My dog is better than you at pronouncing on MLB games.”
I heard everything.
Yet, if you take a step back, you realize that over a 24 day period, we maintained an excellent record of 18-6! It’s incredibly good!
However, many punters only remember the very recent past. They see the trees, but not the forest.
I’ve often told friends and family that if I won 100 picks in a row before losing 10 in a row, I would get a ton of nasty comments. I would bet my house on it.
The key lesson to learn is: try not to get too excited about winning streaks or get extremely angry or depressed after losing streaks.
And, if possible, don’t judge other punters based on small samples. You must follow at least 200 choices of a specific person before drawing reasonable conclusions about that person’s abilities to make predictions.
People tend to remember their unsuccessful periods much more clearly than their successful streaks. Try not to blame yourself too much when things start to get complicated.
Sports betting is a marathon, not a race. Keep a cool head as much as possible. You can make it happen!