Here is my best NHL betting option for Tuesday, December 5. This choice is supported by two of my NHL betting systems, called “The Big Upset” and “The Snapped Winning Streak”. I’ll go through each of them with you today.
Let’s say Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than +170 (that’s 2.70, decimal). If team B’s next match is against a different opponent called team C, then according to historical data we should bet on team C (only if their odds for victory (money line) is better than -150, which corresponds to 1.67 in decimal).
In other words, a team that just suffered a big upset is expected to lose again.
The San Jose Sharks had odds of +380 to win last Friday and handed the New Jersey Devils a stunning 6-3 road loss. The Devils are now heading to Vancouver, so following the rules of “The Big Upset” betting angle, my official betting choice is the Vancouver Canucks to beat New Jersey.
Photo Getty Images via AFP
The Devils slowed down, the key?
As previously noted, Vancouver also fits into “The Snapped Winning Streak” betting strategy. This suggests that we bet AGAINST a team whose winning streak that is three games or more was just snapped in their previous meeting.
In this case, the loss to the Sharks ended the Devils’ three-game winning streak, which explains the choice of Vancouver.
A little stress
There is one thing that concerns me about this pick, however: the Devils’ history against the Canucks. The Devils are 14-1 in their last 15 games against the Canucks, including a 6-1 record in Vancouver! This is quite impressive and brings stress to this bet.
However, the Canucks are 8-2-1 at home this year and are playing just as well offensively as the Devils, scoring 3.84 goals per game to New Jersey’s 3.59. Vancouver also holds a defensive advantage over the Devils, allowing 2.56 goals per game compared to New Jersey’s 3.73.
If Thatcher Demko (12-6-0, 2.26 MBA) is confirmed as goaltender Tuesday night for the Canucks, the net advantage should hold, as the Devils should go with Vitek Vanecek, whose numbers are significantly worse (8-5-0, 3.49 MBA).
For these reasons, I believe in a victory for the Vancouver Canucks at home against the New Jersey Devils.