(Johannesburg) South Africa’s highest court on Monday declared ex-President Jacob Zuma ineligible due to a prison sentence in 2021 and excluded him from the May 29 elections, which could mark a setback history of the ANC in power since the end of apartheid.
More than 27.5 million South Africans will be called upon to elect their MPs, who will then appoint the next president. The African National Congress (ANC) risks for the first time in 30 years losing its absolute majority in Parliament and being forced to form a coalition government.
Polls attribute more than 8% of voting intentions to the new small opposition party led by Jacob Zuma, who according to experts appeals to disappointed ANC voters in a context of endemic unemployment and after multiple corruption scandals involving senior leaders. The ANC would fall to around 40% and the largest opposition party (Democratic Alliance, DA) would exceed 20%.
The still influential Mr. Zuma, 82, who was not present at the Court, was a candidate for a deputy seat, head of the list of the Umkhonto We Sizwe movement (MK, “Spear of the Nation” in Zulu).
But, sentenced in 2021 to fifteen months in prison for contempt of justice after having repeatedly refused to appear before a commission of inquiry into state corruption during his nine years in power (2009-2018), his eligibility was contested. The debate over his participation monopolized the campaign and fueled fears of unrest.
The incarceration of the former president in July 2021 was followed, in a gloomy socio-economic climate, by a wave of violence unprecedented in the country since the end of apartheid, leaving more than 350 dead. MK members have promised “anarchy” if the courts torment their party before the elections.
President Cyril Ramaphosa, however, said on a local radio on Monday that he was “not concerned”, considering the security forces ready to face “any threat”.
“Not out of the game”
“Mr Zuma was convicted of an offense and sentenced to a term of imprisonment of more than 12 months,” said Justice Leona Theron, reading the Constitutional Court’s decision. As provided for by the Constitution, “he cannot be elected member of the National Assembly, nor stand for election”.
This decision can still technically be the subject of an appeal by the Electoral Commission (IEC) which had referred the matter to the Court, but this scenario is unlikely since it won its case.
During the ten hours of debates earlier in May, Me Dali Mpofu, who represented Mr Zuma, had tried to argue that the former president could not be considered ineligible because his prison sentence was shortened.
The sulphurous leader had only spent a little more than two months behind bars, first benefiting from conditional release for health reasons, then a reduced sentence.
The high court ruled that only the length of the sentence handed down is relevant and not the length of the sentence served, putting an end to the legal saga on Monday.
At the end of March, the electoral commission excluded Jacob Zuma from the ballot. This decision was overturned in April by an electoral court. The IEC finally appealed to the Constitutional Court last month.
The MK, which called on its supporters for calm, declared in a press release to take note “without surprise” of the “biased and contradictory” court decision, assuring that “victory is certain”. Jacob Zuma will speak publicly in the coming days, the party added.
The former president, forced to resign in 2018 after a series of scandals and still on trial for corruption, has always benefited from fervent popular support. Monday in front of the Court in Johannesburg, a few dozen supporters brandished signs with his image.
“The fact that he is ineligible does not mean that he is out of the game, because he can still campaign for MK and be its face,” said political analyst Sandile Swana, adding that his “party will not lose no voice yet.”