Two projection models retained by the National Institute of Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS) continue to forecast a growth in new hospitalizations linked to COVID-19 in Quebec and the consequent occupation of regular and care beds intensive over the next two weeks.
For regular beds, projections unveiled Thursday morning suggest that within two weeks, occupancy for patients suffering from COVID-19 could exceed 3,000 beds, well above level three established by the Ministry of Health and Social Services and thresholds observed in previous waves.
For intensive care beds, projections also predict that within two weeks, more than 400 beds could be occupied, above the thresholds observed in previous waves.
INESSS reports, however, that the capping of screening capacities observed over the past week now significantly underestimates the number of real cases. For this reason, it is no longer able to reliably produce its prediction report.
On the other hand, the Institute observes that the effects of the health measures announced on December 20 and December 30 are not yet visible in the data and that their effects cannot be taken into account by the models.
In addition, the limited screening capacities lead to a cap on the number of cases, which prevents models from anticipating a possible increase or decrease in cases.
The INESSS models also do not include the progression of the third vaccine dose and its effect on hospitalizations.
The Institute also notes that several people are hospitalized for a reason other than COVID-19, but that they are then declared positive upon admission or during their stay. This proportion could represent nearly 50% of regular beds and more than 15% of intensive care beds, according to INESSS.
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