The Russian army welcomed Friday the capture in Ukraine of a small mining town in the Donbass region, evoking an “important” strategic advance which comes after a long sequence of embarrassing withdrawals for the Kremlin.
What there is to know
- Soledar, a small mining town in Donbass, fell into the hands of Russian forces, according to a statement from Moscow.
- Russia says this is an “important” strategic step forward.
- Tensions have reportedly emerged between the Russian military and the Wagner mercenary group.
- With the dispatch of sophisticated weapons, including tanks, a new Ukrainian offensive is to be expected in the coming months.
In a statement, the Ministry of Defense considered that the conquest of Soledar following weeks of bloody fighting was a key step to allow the “continuation of successful offensive actions” in the sector.
The importance of the capture of the largely deserted town of 10,000 inhabitants, which the Ukrainian authorities still denied in the evening, is questioned by several analysts consulted by The Press.
A more symbolic than strategic value
“There is some symbolic value for Russia, but it has no real strategic impact,” said Liam Collins, an American military expert who worked for a long time at West Point Academy.
PHOTO ASSOCIATED PRESS
A woman and her son, refugees from Soledar, in a temporary shelter near Shakhtarsk, in the Russian-held Donetsk region, on Friday
After having recorded significant setbacks in the regions of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson, the Russian army does not have the means to launch a new large-scale offensive and must be satisfied, he says, with “minimal territorial gains obtained at the cost of heavy human losses.
Ukraine, Collins notes, has also invested heavily in the defense of the city to concentrate Russian forces and prevent them from projecting further into the territory by replicating the damage inflicted on Soledar, which is almost completely destroyed. .
Eugene Rumer, Russia specialist attached to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is also of the opinion that the capture of Soledar does not represent a major development in the conflict.
“I don’t think it’s likely to transform the situation on the ground,” notes the analyst, who also evokes a largely symbolic victory.
Russia needs a victory that it can present to its people, but also to the rest of the world.
Eugene Rumer, Russia scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In the press release published on Friday, the Russian forces ensure that their control of Soledar should make it possible to cut the supply lines of the Ukrainian troops defending, 15 km further south, the city of Bakhmout, also attacked for months.
The Institute for the Study of War, in an analysis published online confirming the Russian advance of the last days, maintains that it will not facilitate the short term encirclement of this agglomeration of 80,000 inhabitants and will not have any impact on supply on the Ukrainian side.
Heavy losses and tensions within the Russian forces
Moscow, notes the organization, “has greatly exaggerated” in its communications operations the importance of Soledar, which represents “at the best of times a tactical Pyrrhic victory”, extremely expensive to obtain.
The developments of the last few days have also highlighted the tensions between the Russian army and the mercenaries of the Wagner group, deployed in large numbers in Soledar.
Yevgeni Prigojine, a close associate of Russian President Vladmir Putin who oversees the organization, assured on Wednesday that his men had taken control of the city.
The Russian army insisted for its part on Friday initially on the importance of the contribution of its own troops, arousing the ire of a commander who reproached them for wanting to appropriate the successes of the Wagner group.
PHOTO ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO, REUTERS
A Russian soldier inspects a Russian Ka-52 “Alligator” combat helicopter in the Luhansk region on Friday.
Eugene Rumer notes that Yevgeny Prigojine was very critical of the work of the army in Ukraine and was anxious to show the capacities of his organization, which recruited in particular in prisons. At the same time, he wanted to “show his loyalty” to the Russian leader.
Vladimir Putin, Mr Rumer adds, may seek to use the mercenaries, known for their violent methods, to “whip” Russian troops into showing more aggression on the ground.
Lawrence Freedman, an expert in military strategy attached to King’s College London, notes in a recent analysis that the Russian army seems to be limited to pitched battles punctuated by heavy artillery fire and heavy casualties requiring a constant influx of ammunition and soldiers.
PHOTO LIBKOS, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Ukrainian stretcher-bearers evacuate a seriously injured soldier in the Luhansk region on Friday.
Ukrainian forces, though smaller in number, are advantaged by their growing ability to strike Russian troops accurately from a distance and their greater mobility, he notes.
Towards a new Ukrainian offensive?
The announced dispatch of more sophisticated armaments, including tanks, suggests that Western countries are “willing to support” a new Ukrainian offensive likely to occur in the coming months, notes Mr. Freedman.
Liam Collins thinks it could happen before the end of winter and will likely target southern areas still under Russian control, but not Crimea.
“It’s a relatively easy peninsula for Russia to defend. I don’t think it will be in the boxes of the Ukrainians for soon, ”he underlines.