Sino-American tensions | The ingredients of an escalation

Nancy Pelosi’s official visit to Taiwan on August 3-4 has led to heightened tensions over the island state claimed by Beijing for decades. Back to the ingredients of this crisis.

Andre Duchesne
The Press

Q. What is China’s attitude towards Taiwan?

R. Beijing has never recognized the existence of Taiwan, an island state that became the refuge of the former leaders of the Republic of China after Mao’s communists seized power in 1949. China considers Taiwan to be its own, but has kept itself to invade and annex it, favoring peaceful integration. The two countries maintain close economic ties, but the vast majority of Taiwanese want to remain independent, the latest polls show.

Q. What’s so irritating about Nancy Pelosi’s visit?

R. Despite recognizing the government of the People’s Republic of China in the 1970s, the United States continues to support Taiwan, including through the supply of weapons. But senior American leaders avoid setting foot there so as not to offend China. Speaker of the House of Representatives and number three in the US administration after the president and vice-president, Nancy Pelosi is the first American in a very high office to officially visit the island in 25 years. The only sitting U.S. president to visit Taiwan was Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1960.

Q. His visit is therefore very disturbing?

R. “The Chinese Communist Party was already reacting when members of the House of Representatives visited Taiwan,” says Benoit Hardy-Chartrand, associate researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies. But the visit of such a high-ranking person in the US government conferred much greater legitimacy on the Taiwanese government, which was unacceptable to him. But the fact that M^me Pelosi being a longtime critic of the Chinese government contributed to the intensity of the Chinese reaction. »

Q. What happened after his visit?

R. China quickly deployed warships and warplanes around the island and began heavy-handed military maneuvers. On Friday, Beijing announced the cancellation or suspension of various discussion tables with the United States on delicate subjects: climate change, military security, the fight against drugs. China’s Ambassador to Washington, Qin Gang, published a scathing open letter in the Washington Post, calling Mr.^me Pelosi and the Taiwanese authorities of “extremely irresponsible, provocative and dangerous”.

Q. China notably fired 11 missiles, five of which fell (at sea) in the “exclusive economic zone” of Japan, which strongly protested. Should we fear a conflagration?

R. Not at the moment. “China is not trying to provoke a war,” Benoit Hardy-Chartrand tells us. “This is for Beijing to signify its anger and exert such intense pressure on Taiwan that it in the future would be much more hesitant to welcome senior representatives of foreign governments. Annexation without bloodshed remains Beijing’s main objective for the time being. »

Q. Will this influence the 23 million Taiwanese?

R. No, believes Julian Spencer-Churchill, associate professor in the department of political science at Concordia University. “In 1995-96, China fired several missiles at the island (known as the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis) to influence the election, but it had the opposite effect,” he said. . The policy of countries that bully their neighbors has its limits. In the long term, no one gives in to these kinds of threats. »

Q. Has Canada reacted to China?

R. Yes. In Toronto on Friday, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said she was “extremely concerned” by China’s “aggressive rhetoric” while revealing that Canada’s charge d’affaires in Beijing had been lectured by the local government . She considered that the visit of an important figure in the United States Congress could not be used as a pretext to “increase tensions” and “destabilize” the region. According to her, the G7 countries are in close communication to coordinate their response to China’s retaliatory measures. Ms. Joly also deplored that China is suspending its collaboration with the United States on the issue of climate change.

Q. Will the United States increase its military presence in the area?

A. According to an article in the washington post published on Friday, Washington ordered the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan to stay in the area, but it will avoid approaching the Taiwan Strait while Chinese ships are there. “The United States will make sure not to make any gestures that would aggravate the situation,” said Benoit Hardy-Chartrand. “Recall that the White House was opposed to this visit and tried to dissuade Pelosi from visiting Taiwan. According to the researcher, direct communication between President Joe Biden and his counterpart Xi Jinping will cool tempers and “put the bilateral relationship back on solid ground.”

With the collaboration of Joël-Denis Bellavance, head of the office of The Press in Ottawa