Single or double terminal

The joint committee, made up of 7 deputies and 7 senators, will take up the bill on immigration on Monday at 5 p.m. to try to adopt a common text. A crucial issue for the Prime Minister.

It’s make or break Monday, December 18 for the Prime Minister. First of all, it is a decisive day for the immigration bill in terms of: stop or still? If the joint committee (CMP) fails, the government withdraws its text. If agreed, the new version will be submitted to a vote by deputies and senators.

But beyond that, it’s a real double or nothing for Élisabeth Borne. Because she has taken things in hand since Gérald Darmanin was defeated by the rejection of his text by the Assembly. And she spared no effort to try to convince the right. She again received the leaders of LR on Sunday evening in Matignon. And she gave in to most of their demands, in particular on the regularization of workers in “shortage occupations”, subject to the decision of the prefects within a very restrictive framework. But the right always wants a little more, in particular the written commitment to a new text at the beginning of 2024 to reform state medical aid.

Concessions that should allow the CMP to agree on a text? This is the hope of Élisabeth Borne. And this is undoubtedly the condition for his continued existence at Matignon. In the event of failure, it is difficult to see how she could remain at the head of government for much longer. However, if the CMP produces a common text on Monday evening, it will have to be submitted to the National Assembly, then to the Senate. New suspense.

Can we imagine a negative vote?

Logic would dictate that LR deputies follow the advice of their representatives within the CMP. But on the right, for a while now, not everything has necessarily been logical. The deputies The Republicans are not reliable allies, as the government observed during the pension reform. And then Élisabeth Borne can fear losses on the other side, within the left wing of the majority. Renaissance or MoDem deputies refuse to approve a toughened text, too close to the version adopted by the senatorial right.

In the current climate of uncertainty, nothing is impossible. And after the adoption of the rejection motion last Monday, the government would probably not survive a second lost vote in the hemicycle on Tuesday. Between bluffing and pressure, the suspense should continue until the end. With the fear for Élisabeth Borne, given the fragility of her majority, that even a positive outcome for her would be little more than a reprieve until the next crisis.