The government is currently working on the next 2024 budget. For now, everything is happening behind the scenes. Ministers are asked to tighten their belts. Jean-Rémi Baudot’s political brief.
This is the discussion of the moment at the top of the State: the Finance Bill, or PLF for short. A process which starts in April with discussions between the various ministries and Bercy which manages the finances of the country, where one details there initially the incompressible needs to make turn the machine of the State.
>> Budget: we explain the differences between the PLF and the PLFSS, the two bills on the financing of the State and social security
Next come face-to-face discussions between ministers. And there, it becomes interesting: these meetings take place from the beginning of June in the office of Gabriel Attal, Minister of Public Accounts, with each of his fellow ministers, one to two hours of negotiations, sometimes very technical. Each budget line is detailed, discussed, negotiated…
Olivier Dussopt already thinks he has made a lot of effort with pensions
When it gets stuck, it goes up to the floor above: Matignon. Each year, five arbitration meetings are required on average. And that’s what happened Thursday, June 23 in the evening. Around Elisabeth Borne, the ministers of Bercy (Le Maire and Attal) and Olivier Dussopt. The Minister of Labor failed to agree with Gabriel Attal.
On the one hand, one says that with the pension reform and its 17 billion in savings, it has already contributed a lot to the budgetary effort. On the other, Bercy replies that there are still savings to be found on subsidized contracts, free jobs or the Personal Training Account… A delicate dialogue, especially since Olivier Dussopt was in the place of Gabriel Attal : he knows the ropes of the exercise and Bercy’s arguments. Faced with the blockage, it is therefore Elisabeth Borne who will decide.
But sometimes, Matignon’s arbitration is a gamble. It is said that last year, a minister came out of the office of the Prime Minister with less than Bercy had proposed during the negotiations.
“A 49.3 is inevitable”
The State budget is thus decided, on a corner of the table. According to our information, this year in aggregate, the ministers have requested 37 billion euros more than the state budget. For those who have failed, it will therefore be necessary to redeploy their spending and review their priorities. Making a budget means making economic and political choices. Recently, the government announced reductions in housing aid: two billion euros in all. “We took it seriously, but we want to restore public finances”, Bruno Le Maire justifies himself…
The budgets by ministries will be allocated finalized within two weeks before going through Parliament after the summer. The problem is that with a relative majority, the government has almost no chance of having its PLF adopted. Politically, passing a budget is seen as majority support. “A 49.3 is inevitable“, blows a minister in Bercy. But this prospect does not delight many people within the executive: who says 49.3, says possible motion of censure with new tensions in the Assembly. The adoption of the 2024 budget risks resembling to that of the 2023 budget.