On Saturday, 25 people were killed in a bombing in Belgorod, Russia. The next day, four people were killed and 13 injured in a Ukrainian strike on the Moscow-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
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A new escalation between Moscow and kyiv. Russia and Ukraine have experienced episodes of violence in recent days. On Saturday December 30, 25 people were killed in a bombing in Belgorod, Russia, following a missile attack against Ukraine the day before, described as “massive” by kyiv, and which left around forty dead. The Belgorod attack was the deadliest for civilians in Russia since the start of the conflict.
The next day, on the night of Sunday December 31 to Monday January 1, four people were killed and 13 injured during a Ukrainian strike on Donetsk, a city in eastern Ukraine under the control of Moscow, according to an official installed by Russia. “The enemy aimed to do as much harm as possible to the civilian population”declared Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk “republic”, affirming that these strikes had not “no sense on a military level”.
In retaliation for these unprecedented attacks on Russian soil, President Vladimir Putin promised an amplification of his offensive. “We will intensify the strikes, no crime against civilians will go unpunished, that is a certainty”he said during a visit to a military hospital on Monday.
Doubts about the real target of the strikes
“Until now, Ukrainian strikes have focused on military targets, many of them in the Belgorod region”underlines an article from World. Or on telecom networks or the electrical system, like in October. But this time, the strikes hit in “right in the center of the city, where people walk, before New Year’s Eve”, denounced Vladimir Putin on Monday. If “Attacks on Russia have already taken place by Ukrainian forces, with Belgorod a target of Ukrainian defenses”reminds franceinfo Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russian geopolitics and vice-president of the Geneva Geostrategic Observatory, “This is the first time that there have been so many civilian victims.”
The question remains whether civilians were targeted by this attack. “Right after the strike, the Russian Defense Ministry said the damage was due to the interception of Ukrainian missiles”, reports Ulrich Bounat, geopolitical analyst for Central and Eastern Europe, citing the Russian news agency Interfax. It was later that the Russian version changed, with Vladimir Putin calling“terrorist act” the bombing of Belgorod. “The previous explanation has disappeared in favor of a simplistic version, according to which the Ukrainians deliberately targeted civilians”, reports the associate researcher at Open Diplomacy. But he lists several elements validating the first account of a botched interception. First, images of downtown Belgorod “show the tail of a missile that looks very similar to an S-300 anti-aircraft missile”. Afterwards, “When the Russians change their version, it is because the initial one does not correspond to the official narrative that Russia wants to lead and then the propaganda reformulates the message.” As for the attack on Donetsk, it “apparently aimed at a gathering of Russian soldiers and bloggers”adds Ulrich Bounat.
A change in strategy would be “counterproductive”
Volodymyr Zelensky himself “no more talk about counter-offensive” but, notes Carole Grimaud, “emphasizes defense”, at the end of a year marked by the failure of its summer counter-offensive and the almost total freezing of the front line. As during an interview at The Economistpublished Monday, in which the Ukrainian leader says that kyiv’s most urgent mission is to “defend the East and save the major cities of the East and South”. As well as isolating Crimea. This last objective could cause civilian casualties – the Kerch bridge being “used daily by residents”describes Carole Grimaud – but it would be a question of “collateral damages” and not of “deliberate strikes on civilians as the Russians can do in maternity wards, hotels, etc.”adds Ulrich Bounat.
In the opinion of the two specialists, it will be necessary to analyze Ukrainian behavior in the coming weeks to know if there is really a change in strategy targeting civilians on the part of kyiv. It would be “completely counterproductive”however notes Ulrich Bounat: “From the Western point of view, the Ukrainians are the ones being attacked in this war and the Russians are the aggressors. This posture is generating a surge of international solidarity. If Kiev decided to target civilians, that would pose a real problem for Western support. “