All-round security is no longer enough to break the impasse, such seems to be the diagnosis of some leaders in the Sahel. The return to peace could go through a dialogue with armed groups. Should we negotiate with the jihadists? If yes, with whom? And for what results?
Burkina: discussing with “local fighters”
The junta, which overthrew on January 24, 2022 the elected president Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, had justified the coup d’etat by the incompetence of the authorities to stem the jihadist violence which has plagued Burkina Faso for nearly seven years. Three months later, whole sections of the country continue to escape the control of Ouagadougou. The jihadist threat, far from being reduced, continues to spread. In seven years, jihadist violence has caused more than 2 000 deaths and forced at least 1.8 million people to flee their homes in Burkina Faso. As in Mali and Niger, the question quickly arose : should we speak with armed groups ? Unlike Niamey, Ouagadougou excludes any negotiation with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS), but resolves to dialogue with local fighters, who would like to lay down their arms, according to the authorities.
“The reason for this dialogue is that we are at an impasse. The path on which they have embarked is a path with no future, this is the observation made by these young people.”
Yéro Boly, Burkinabè Minister for National Reconciliationat AFP
Niger: “Outstretched hand” to all jihadists
Weapons are not enough, we must also speak with the jihadists, and all jihadists, including transnational organizations. Fervent defender of this line, Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum has begun discussions in recent months with elements of the jihadist group Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS) responsible for recurrent deadly attacks in the west of the country. Since the announcement in mid-February by France of the withdrawal from Mali of the Barkhane and European Takuba forces, Niamey fears a new jihadist push in the immense landlocked region of Tillabéri (west), in the so-called Three Borders zone.
“We have always said that we have to discuss with the compatriots who are in the EIGS or Al-Qaeda, see which ones we can recover.”
Boubacar Diallo, President of the Council of Breeders of North-Tillabériat AFP
For Niamey, the objective is twofold : dry up the recruitment of new recruits and reintegrate those who give up their arms by attacking the structural reasons.
Mali: the limits of “the Wagner solution”
The time is not for dialogue in Bamako but for triumphalist press releases. The vicious circle of jihadist attacks followed by military reprisals, with its share of massacres of civilians, does not seem ready to stop. And the presence of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner confirms the will of the Malian authorities to seek a military victory against the jihadists. Before negotiating ? Because the relationship has never been broken. In 2020, former President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta had asked for emissaries to be sent to two jihadist leaders and the subject had resurfaced after the departure of France, which has always opposed such a strategy.
What results ?
It is still early to talk about results. The three countries, particularly Mali, continue to regularly face jihadist groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, which control large territories. Niamey, Ouagadougou and Bamako fail to define a common strategy against the jihadists. On the military level, Burkina Faso and Niger carry out joint operations, mainly on their borders.