Should we fear a domino effect in neighboring countries?

On Russia’s borders, the risk of a flare-up of conflict is on everyone’s mind. The Baltic states are the least vulnerable. They are part of NATO, supposed to protect them in case of attack. However, the Lithuanians are rushing into the armories. Purchases of ammunition have increased fivefold, and pistols eightfold, said Vaidas Sabaliauskas, director of the Lithuanian Defense Industrial Association. The fear is even stronger in Moldova and Georgia, countries ruled by pro-Western women, but where there are Russian separatist provinces controlled by the army of Moscow (Russia). Vladimir Putin also attacked Georgia in 2008.

“These countries are not members of the European Union, they are not members of NATO, (…) and therefore they are birds for the cat”, analyzes Jean-Michel De Waele, professor at the ULB, specialist in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Within the European Union, Sweden and Finland, which are not part of NATO, also feel threatened. “Vladimir Putin has repeated several times since the beginning of the conflict (…) that if the Scandinavian countries participate in the Western effort, they could be subject to an invasion, or to military action”explains Julien Pomarède, researcher at the ULB and the University of Oxford, specialist in defense issues.