Japan knows Fumio Kishida’s successor as prime minister, after Friday’s election of Shigeru Ishiba as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), the ruling party.
Mr. Ishiba, who was in his fifth attempt, beat the ultra-conservative Sanae Takaichi, who aspired to be the first woman to occupy this position, in the final of this election, which Mr. Kishida decided to give up , de facto abandoning his post as head of government.
“The president [du PLD] Kishida made the decision to regain the trust of the people so that the LDP could be reborn. I will do my best to tell the truth with courage and sincerity, and to make this country a safe and secure place where everyone can live with a smile again,” Mr. Ishiba declared in front of the PLD members, after having wiped a few tears.
This change of prime minister should not, however, have major consequences on Japan’s current policy.
Mr. Ishiba, who will officially take office as head of government on 1er October, will have to manage international tensions with the very active Chinese and North Korean neighbors and face the same internal problems of a country stuck in an economy that is struggling to get back on track.
Regional tensions
Relations between Japan, an ally of the United States, and China regularly experience periods of tension, fueled by rival geopolitical ambitions. And the numerous military incidents in recent months have further strained relations between the two countries.
Like the recent and unprecedented passage of a Chinese aircraft carrier between Japanese islands to which Tokyo responded by also having one of its warships cross the Taiwan Strait for the first time.
“The healthy, steady and long-term development of China-Japan relations serves the fundamental interests of the two peoples. This is the only appropriate choice,” responded Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
After speaking of the creation of an “Asian NATO” during the campaign, Ishiba, 67, more cautiously spoke of a more egalitarian alignment of existing alliances, particularly with the United States.
He thus expressed the wish for a training base on American soil, as Germany did, which could be an “extremely effective” way to strengthen the alliance and would allow Japanese troops to ” train to the maximum of their abilities.
“I think Japan wants to take its proactive responsibility and start discussions on how to build peace in this region,” he said.
At the end of the 2e round, in which PLD deputies and local offices participated, Mr. Ishiba obtained 215 votes against 194 for his 63-year-old rival.
The former Minister of Defense and Agriculture, popular with voters, had tried in vain four times to become party leader. But his unpopularity with his parliamentary colleagues – whose votes were essential for this two-round election – had greatly disadvantaged him until then.
“Fair and equitable”
“Public discontent with the LDP is growing, and the trend is in favor of Ishiba and his attitude deemed “just and equitable”,” explained Yu Uchiyama, professor of political science at the University of Tokyo.
With a vision anchored in tradition and a desire for profound reforms, the man who was long considered the eternal number 2 said during this campaign that he wanted to tackle difficult social problems such as political and agricultural reforms and questions of national security.
Upon the announcement of this election of a future prime minister positioned in favor of monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the yen jumped by 1% against the dollar to 143.37 yen, and by 1 .26% against the euro at 159.84 yen around 9:25 a.m. GMT.
Mr. Kishida, 67 years old and in office since October 2021, has seen his popularity undermined by inflation and by political-financial scandals which have shaken the PLD.
During his mandate, the Japanese leader resolutely took the side of Ukraine after the Russian invasion and strove, with the support of the United States, to strengthen Japanese defense policy in the face of China’s assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region.