A year of war in Ukraine was enough to tear Russia’s international reputation to shreds. The only allies that remain in Moscow can be counted on the fingers of one hand and form a club of dictators mocked by the concert of nations and very often reviled by their own people.
Syria. Iran. North Korea. Eritrea. Belarus. It is in this coterie of pariah states that Vladimir Putin found, on March 2, 2022 at the United Nations, the only firm support for his war in Ukraine.
These regimes remain loyal to Moscow for different reasons. By instinct of survival in the case of Syria, since the maintenance in power of the regime of Bashar al-Assad depends largely on the good graces of Moscow. By hatred of the West in the case of Iran, an Islamic theocracy led by ayatollahs for whom the United States represents “the great Satan”.
North Korea, the last communist totalitarian regime in the world, ostracized by the international community, does not have the luxury of choosing its friends and finds, in the Kremlin’s discourse, an echo of its own propaganda. Washington poses a vital threat to both Moscow and Pyongyang from the perspective of both regimes, and it is important to help Russia against US aggression.
“The world would be brighter, safer and more serene without the United States,” hammered North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un last month. Washington accuses North Korea of supplying arms and ammunition to Russian troops, allegations vehemently denied by Pyongyang.
The support of Eritrea, the only African country to openly support the Russian war in Ukraine, is based on the same motivations. This small state of lawlessness, where the president, Isaias Afwerki, has reigned unhindered by elections since 1993, has developed a hatred of Americans, the dictator in power repeating for two decades that Washington represents, there too, the most serious threat to national survival.
“None of these countries supports Russia because they believe the war in Ukraine is just,” said Maria Popova, professor of political science at McGill University. “There is even a debate on the question of whether Belarus is still a sovereign state, so much the regime of dictator Alexandra Lukashenko is subservient to Vladimir Putin. »
New Delhi and Beijing, both BRICS members alongside Moscow, have been performing a perilous exercise in tightrope walking for a year. “India condemned the invasion on paper, but its actions are more useful to Russia than to Ukraine, analyzes Mme Popova. It continues to buy Russian oil at a derisory price, which gives Moscow a little air at a time when international sanctions are trying, on the contrary, to stifle its economy. »
Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the value of Russian imports to India has indeed jumped 500%, from US$6.5 billion in 2021 to US$33 billion last year, according to figures from the Indian Ministry of Commerce.
We realize that the former Soviet republics do not want to be part of the sphere of influence that Russia dreams of
China has a fundamental aversion to any violation of state borders, having its own territorial disputes with Tibet and Xinjiang. However, Beijing promised “unreserved” friendship to Moscow days before the outbreak of war and has since never condemned the Russian invasion.
“China’s support for Russia is much less ambiguous than it may seem,” observes Jacques Lévesque, professor emeritus of political science at UQAM. “China has never recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, without affecting its relations with Moscow. A fortiori, it does not support the war waged by Russia in Ukraine at all, without however denouncing it. This means a lot to Putin. »
Beijing’s friendship is essential for Moscow: by email, Jacques Lévesque recalls that “trade relations between Russia and China have experienced a spectacular increase of 35% in 2022, to reach a peak of 190 billion dollars”.
China’s tacit support for the Russian incursion into Ukraine is understandable by Beijing’s ambitions towards Taiwan. “China has only one territorial claim, which is the return of Taiwan to Chinese rule,” writes the professor emeritus of UQAM. The steady increase in US military supplies to Taipei only worsens relations between the two sides and strengthens cooperation between Russia and China. »
The war in Ukraine has also highlighted Moscow’s loss of influence in its immediate neighborhood. The states that gravitated in the orbit of the Soviet Empire are watching Vladimir Putin’s warmongering attitude with growing suspicion, fearing that they will become the next targets in Russia’s crosshairs.
Of the 15 former republics of the Soviet Union, only Russia and Belarus have endorsed the invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations. Six condemned the war, four abstained and three others preferred to be absent subscribers.
“We realize that the former Soviet republics do not want to be part of the sphere of influence that Russia dreams of,” said Maria Popova.
This is especially true of Kazakhstan, a country that has distanced itself from Moscow since the start of the Russian invasion. Astana refuses to recognize the territories annexed by Russia, a rebuff that irritates the highest degree of apologists for Vladimir Putin, many of whom suggest the “denazification” of Kazakhstan, accused in turn of having “genocidal policies” in the against its Russian-speaking population.
Despite the warlike rhetoric of Vladimir Putin and his megaphones, Russia, in a year of war, has above all lost the splendor it still had in the eyes of the world, according to Maria Popova.
“The longer the war goes on, the more Russia digs a grave from which it will have difficulty getting out. »