The 2025 state budget proposal is set for a Senate vote after a tumultuous journey through Parliament, marked by initial rejections and leadership changes. The government faces challenges from opposition parties, necessitating urgent fiscal measures to improve public finances. While a supportive Senate may facilitate passage, negotiations with socialists and right-wing parties are critical. Last-minute cuts across various ministries have sparked controversy, intensifying the debate over budget priorities amidst ongoing negotiations.
State Budget Project for 2025: A Turbulent Journey to the Senate
After more than three months of deliberation, the state budget proposal for 2025 is set to be presented in full to the Senate for a vote this Thursday. This vote is expected to proceed without any major surprises for a government currently engaged in delicate negotiations with socialist party members, as it seeks to secure its continued existence.
Originally introduced by Michel Barnier in October, this finance bill (PLF) has faced a tumultuous path in Parliament. It was initially rejected by the National Assembly during its first reading, faced suspension following the censure of the former Prime Minister, and has since been taken over by François Bayrou. The finance bill has indeed had a rocky trajectory in the legislative process.
Challenges Ahead for the Government
Despite the fact that a different budget document, the Social Security budget, was responsible for the collapse of the Barnier government, there is no guarantee that this finance bill will sail through smoothly. On the contrary, opposition parties may pose significant challenges.
This budget is critical for a nation currently functioning under the exceptional circumstances of a special law enacted at the end of last year. It presents a substantial challenge for the executive branch, which lacks an absolute majority in the National Assembly while facing pressure from Brussels to improve public finances.
“This is a highly complex task, but it is essential. A France without a budget is akin to a France immobilized, further exacerbating its deficit,” emphasized government spokesperson Sophie Primas on Wednesday, stressing the urgency of enacting the budget before the end of February.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance (Bercy) aims to achieve a total of 32 billion euros in savings alongside 21 billion euros in new revenue, targeting a reduction of the public deficit to 5.4% of GDP by 2025, down from an anticipated 6.1% for 2024.
To facilitate these objectives, the government is likely to benefit from a supportive Senate, dominated by a right-centrist alliance that shares its goal of reducing expenditures. Consequently, the upper chamber is anticipated to adopt the budget proposal with considerable backing.
“This budget represents the initiation of our efforts to restore fiscal health. We find ourselves in a critical situation that demands urgent action, all while remaining true to our principles,” remarked Jean-François Husson (LR), the budget’s general rapporteur, as he leads discussions at the Luxembourg Palace.
However, complexities may arise for the government as a joint mixed commission (CMP) convenes on January 30, comprising seven senators and seven deputies tasked with crafting a compromise version of the budget. Should they succeed, this common text must then navigate the National Assembly for a final vote in the week of February 3, potentially triggering the use of 49.3, alongside the risk of a new motion of censure.
Having successfully persuaded the socialists not to censure him during his general policy address, François Bayrou is now aiming to extend this agreement to the budget, offering concessions such as the reduction of 4,000 teaching positions, the implementation of a three-day waiting period for public service, and the renegotiation of the pension reform from 2023.
Nonetheless, the socialists remain dissatisfied and are expected to oppose the budget on Thursday, joining the entire left in this stance.
According to Patrick Kanner, president of the PS senators, “The CMP will serve as the arbiter. There is an opportunity to shift positions by January 30. We acknowledge that the budget will not be ideal, but we aim to make it as minimally detrimental as possible,” as he continues to push for further advancements.
As the New Popular Front grapples with internal dissent, the Unsubmissive faction has criticized the socialists, warning that if they opt not to censure, it could lead to a definitive breach with the NFP. However, for the agreements between Bayrou and the socialists to be included in the budget, cooperation is essential.
The right-wing parties will also play a crucial role in this negotiation process; the LR has already dismissed many of the concessions made to the socialists, particularly rejecting the restoration of 4,000 teaching positions, 500 roles in France Travail, and the addition of 924 positions for the Ministry of Justice. These issues may be revisited during the CMP discussions.
As the budget examination enters its final stages, the government’s last-minute proposals for additional cuts across nearly all ministries have sparked further tensions. Proposed savings include 800 million euros on development aid, over a billion on housing and ecological initiatives, 600 million on research and higher education, and significant reductions in the sports budget following the Olympic year. These measures have drawn sharp criticism from the socialist faction.