Saudi Arabia | Joe Biden’s visit will boost Crown Prince bin Salman’s momentum

(Riyadh) Ostracized for several years by Western countries, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia Mohamed bin Salman is preparing to come back in force on the international scene, with the visit of the American president, five years after being appointed crown prince.

Joe Biden’s announced visit to the kingdom will mark the international rehabilitation of the 36-year-old prince, who had been largely isolated after the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The move in mid-July of Mr. Biden, after that of the French, British and Turkish leaders, in a context of soaring energy prices linked to the war in Ukraine, sounds like a victory for the son of King Salman, aged 86 years old.

Since he was appointed crown prince on June 21, 2017, the one who is often referred to by his initials MBS, has strengthened his grip on the world’s leading crude exporting country, while liberalizing certain aspects of society.

“Spectacular Revolution”

But his efforts to modernize the image of the ultra-conservative kingdom have been swept away by the case of Khashoggi, a journalist critical of the regime killed by Saudi agents in his country’s consulate in Istanbul in 2018.

A US intelligence report then concluded that MBS had “approved” of an operation to capture or kill Khashoggi, which Saudi denies.

Until recently, Washington was the “leader of the opposition to MBS”, recalled researcher Yasmine Farouk of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the United States.

So “a meeting and a photo with Biden” was “exactly what MBS was looking for,” according to a Riyadh-based diplomat.

Upon his arrival in Saudi Arabia, the American president will see the imprint of MBS in many areas, the most visible development being undoubtedly that concerning the situation of women.

In five years, Saudi women have been allowed to stop wearing the veil, to participate in public events and to drive.

Moreover, they no longer need the permission of a male relative to obtain a passport or travel abroad.

But to live a little more freely, it is still necessary not to raise your voice against power. In 2018, at least a dozen activists were arrested.

These arrests were part of a wave of repression which also hit princes and senior officials suspected of corruption or lack of loyalty.

MBS “has brought about a spectacular cultural, social and artistic revolution […]coupled with an equally spectacular concentration of political power”, summarizes Hussein Ibish, of the Institute for Arab States of the Gulf in Washington.

More conciliatory approach

The prince also left his mark on the kingdom’s foreign policy.

Two months after his father’s accession to the throne in 2015, when he was Minister of Defense, he decided to intervene in neighboring Yemen, at the head of a military coalition, to support the government against the Houthi rebels. , close to Iran, its great regional rival.

In more than seven years, the war has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and pushed millions of Yemenis to the brink of starvation. Today, however, Riyadh seems to be looking for a way out of the conflict, supporting a truce in the country since April.

Another strong manifestation of Saudi foreign policy: the three-year blockade imposed in June 2017 on Qatar, accused of supporting extremist groups.

But recently, analysts believe that the kingdom has adopted a more conciliatory approach with key powers in the region, for example by engaging in talks with Iran. The crown prince also spoke of Israel as a “potential ally”, amid rumors of his desire to normalize relations between the two countries.

But one of the most important components of MBS’s reform program is undoubtedly the economic component, which aims to reduce the country’s dependence on oil.

Arabia wants to attract some 30 million foreign tourists a year by 2030, notably through futuristic projects like NEOM, a 500 billion dollar megalopolis equipped with domestic robots and flying taxis.

MBS insists that “only he can transform Saudi Arabia,” notes Kristian Ulrichsen of Rice University’s Baker Institute.

But “the next few years will be crucial” for him because he “will have to deliver tangible results,” she adds.