Despite unprecedented sanctions and substantial support for Ukraine, Westerners have not succeeded in stopping the Russian invasion and are even expecting the “worst”. But their options for increasing the pressure on Vladimir Putin promise to be complex.
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More penalties?
The G7 countries promised on Friday to impose “tough new sanctions” on Russia, and the head of the American diplomacy Antony Blinken pledged to “keep up the pressure” until “the war is over”. .
But the room for maneuver is narrow.
The Americans had promised, before the invasion, to start “from the start at the top of the ladder”, and they kept their word.
Together with their European allies, they have decreed unprecedented sanctions against the Russian financial system and the oligarchs close to the Kremlin, banned imports of crucial technologies and imposed an air blockade. Russia has been banned from major sports competitions and dozens of companies have withdrawn from the country.
“I am one of those who thought” that the threat of these sanctions “would be enough to dissuade President Putin” from launching his offensive, “but that was not the case”, the ex-ambassador told AFP. of the United States in Kiev William Taylor. “So I’m not sure that more sanctions can convince him to step down. »
So far, the energy sector has been relatively spared.
Many US lawmakers are urging Joe Biden to ban US imports of Russian oil.
“Nothing is excluded,” replied the American president.
Some hawks are also calling for the Russian financial system to be completely cut off from the rest of the world, while Westerners have taken care to target the banks least linked to the hydrocarbon sector.
Antony Blinken warned against solutions that would reduce global energy supply and automatically drive up “pump prices” in America and Europe. This is not in the “strategic interest” of the West, he warned, seeming to bet more on an effect of current sanctions over time.
A no-fly zone?
To limit Russian strikes on Kiev and other cities, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky implores NATO to establish a no-fly zone over his country.
But for now, it’s an impassable red line for the Transatlantic Alliance, of which Ukraine is not a member.
“The only way to implement a no-fly zone is to send NATO fighter jets into Ukrainian airspace and then shoot down Russian jets to enforce it,” he said. explained its secretary general Jens Stoltenberg. And that would be the assurance of a “total war in Europe”, he hammered.
Referring to the risk of a nuclear confrontation, many experts therefore think that Americans and Europeans will not deviate from this line, as long as the conflict remains confined to Ukraine or in any case to non-NATO countries.
In the political class in Washington, a handful of elected Republicans like Adam Kinzinger and Roger Wicker believe, however, that the Allies will ultimately have to take the risk of a no-fly zone.
In the absence of such a solution, Washington and the European Union have for the time being committed to continuing to deliver arms to the Ukrainian forces. Here too, voices are being raised to provide more offensive equipment, including Soviet-made fighter planes that some Eastern European countries have and that Ukrainian pilots already know how to handle.
Chase Putin?
US Senator Lindsey Graham didn’t take a detour: he called on “someone in Russia” to assassinate President Putin.
“We are not advocating for the assassination of the leader of a foreign country or for regime change. It is not the policy of the United States, ”dryly swept the White House on Friday.
But some observers believe that by drying up the Russian economy and, above all, the assets of the oligarchs who have enriched themselves in the entourage of the Kremlin, the sanctions can push certain members of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle to turn against him.
“The probability of a palace coup or an oligarchic revolt is significant,” predicts Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer, director of the Institute for Strategic Research at the Military School (Irsem) in France, in an article published by Le Grand Continent magazine and the War on the Rocks website.
Others doubt it, like Samuel Charap, of the think tank Rand Corporation.
“People who can influence the course of things are extremely loyal and are there for their loyalty,” he told AFP.
And diplomacy?
According to this observer, Joe Biden should continue, like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, to try to convince his Russian counterpart to backtrack, relying on the “balance of power” established with punishments.
“It may not be possible, but I think it’s the best we can do at this stage,” he said.
Some are instead betting on another adversary of the United States and Europeans: China.
For a Western diplomat, “Beijing is more and more embarrassed by the situation” and has not flown to the aid of the Russian economy to mitigate the effect of the sanctions. China can therefore play a much more effective role, behind the scenes, than the West, he slips.