Rust and lost shine

The contrast is striking between the start of the parliamentary term in Quebec and that which is being prepared in Ottawa.

François Legault dominates in the polls, while Justin Trudeau does not lead in any province. But in both cases, time catches up with them.

Among the liberals, the rust is setting in. Even if this wear and tear has not yet appeared among the Caquistes, their vehicle has lost its “new party” shine.

At the federal level, we wonder what exactly the Trudeau government is doing. He slowed down. For example, the appointment of judges is difficult and reflection on the housing crisis struggles to lead to new proposals. To say that this government is broken would be an exaggeration – it is waging a tough battle against the oil and gas lobby to cap its greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonize electricity. The ambition seems above all to survive by implementing complex and costly demands of the NDP such as national programs to ensure dental care and medicines.

In Quebec, no one wonders what the CAQ government is doing. In health and education, Ministers Dubé and Drainville are destabilizing with their extensive reforms under study. Their colleague Geneviève Guilbault wants to entrust the management of major public transport projects to an independent agency. And in energy, a major shift is underway with the revision of industrial rates and the addition of required production. Without forgetting the three-year update of immigration targets. And all this is taking place against a backdrop of negotiations with the public sector, with the unions which have obtained strike mandates.

This is a busy government.

The problem is that despite all this agitation, the population does not see any improvement. There is a shortage of teachers, the health gap is not going away and the housing crisis continues.

Two ingredients of CAQ success risk being diluted.

The first is the attraction of novelty. Many hopes were pinned on this young coalition. After being disappointed by the Liberals and the PQ, the electorate gave Powder Blue a chance. But time passes and improvements on the ground do not meet expectations.

Old broken promises are also catching up with the CAQ, such as the third link and the reform of the voting system. Even those who welcome these abandonments are losing a little confidence in the government’s word. As if the CAQ in turn became a party of power, which is not so different from the others.

The second ingredient of CAQ success was the image of effective managers. The CAQ included several well-known faces in the business community. Mr. Legault was allergic to consultationnitis. He promised to move quickly, even if it meant displeasing people. But decentralization has not yet materialized in health or education.

With 37% support in the polls, the CAQ is not falling, far from it. All other parties would dream of such a position of strength. Still, there is a feeling of a return to reality. The euphoria of the beginnings will not return.

It has often been written that the opposition in Quebec is divided. But it is also scattered.

However, this is less true for the Parti Québécois, and this explains its rise in the polls. Because the PQ takes up the third ingredient of CAQ success: nationalism, of which it is the historical defender.

The PQ targeted a specific electorate: the nationalist who gave the CAQ a chance. It’s simple and it’s clear.

Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is banking on failures or disappointments with language, immigration and relations with the federal government. He benefits from his uninhibited approach: the PQ no longer argue among themselves over Law 101 in CEGEP and the wearing of religious symbols.

On the news Tuesday evening, we saw Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon calling for a parliamentary commission on trans people. But if you listen carefully, he was just answering questions. To avoid improvising a hot position, he suggested collective reflection. If we forget his unnecessary reference to the “radical left”, the statement was moderate.

It is more difficult for Québec solidaire and for the Liberal Party. These parties do not have a female spokesperson or a permanent leader respectively. Until the outcome of these races, the strategy will inevitably remain imprecise.

One issue in the race for female spokesperson is knowing who QS should court. The regions ? Moderate nationalists? Or mobilize progressives already sympathetic to the cause?

The PLQ seems mixed. Do we want to rally the old liberals who have joined the CAQ? By criticizing nationalism or by reconnecting with it? Do we want to be more combative with the federal government or more accommodating with linguistic minorities? Will we prioritize economic issues, and if so, with what vision to contrast with the CAQ offensive in the battery sector?

Unlike Justin Trudeau, the cost of living has been at the heart of Mr. Legault’s speech since 2018. Some of his proposals were regressive, such as the unnecessary check for people earning up to $95,000 and the reduction in the school tax which benefited the rich proportionately more. But he also helped the poorest.

The CAQ is especially vulnerable due to the housing crisis – only Québec solidaire has always made it a priority.

The fact remains that overall, in Quebec, it is not the opposition that is scratching the CAQ picture. Rather, it’s the weather. But it is not moving at the same speed as in Ottawa.