The results are striking. According to a poll published Thursday, March 31 by Levada, the most serious Russian survey institute, the approval rate of Russians for the action of their President Vladimir Putin reaches 83% (link in English). The vast majority of the 145 million Russians therefore support Moscow’s action. This is almost 20 points more than in December (65%), before the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin thus regains levels of support unprecedented since the takeover of Crimea eight years ago. This investigative institute is reliable. Levada is globally considered the most neutral and independent research center in Russia today.
Also according to this survey, 69% of Russians believe that their country “going in the right direction”. They were only 46% in November. They are thus a majority to have a negative image of Westerners: this is not new for the United States but it is even more so for the European Union. Thus, 48% of Russians have a negative image of Europe against 37% who have a positive image. Russian public opinion therefore seems, as in 2014, animated by a surge of nationalist fever, a reflex of cohesion around the power in place and against the external enemy. Vladimir Putin can claim real popularity and popular support.
That said, the Russian population does not have full free will. You can’t take all of these numbers at face value. First, there is the effect of censorship. Let us recall that the last independent media, such as Echo radio in Moscow, the newspaper Novaia Gazeta or Dodj television, have all closed their doors or suspended their activities. They consider that independent journalistic work has become impossible.
Indeed, the media watchdog, Roskomnadzor, is watching everyone closely. The use of the word “war” is still not allowed. And the cult of the leader’s personality – an old story in Russia – has been in full swing for several years already. The Russians are therefore fed one-way state information. In addition to censorship, there is also self-censorship: the fear of being arrested or mistreated if one expresses a dissenting opinion, a fortiori if one criticizes Vladimir Putin. This puts the work of investigative institutes into perspective. Last element of weighting: support for Vladimir Putin varies according to the categories of the population. Young people, especially in urban areas, are the most critical. There we are rather on 50-50 according to several Russian researchers. It is also there that we find the supporters of the imprisoned opponent Alexeï Navalny.
The logical conclusion is that we should not bet on a possible popular uprising in Russia. This is a very unlikely hypothesis, almost a utopia. This is not where a change of course can come from. Vladimir Putin can legitimately think that the Russians support him, even if the nationalist fever will undoubtedly go down a little, especially if the conflict gets bogged down. If there is a change in the Russian offensive, it will most likely be due to serial military stalemates or to hypothetical pressure from the entourage of the master of the Kremlin. But for now, Vladimir Putin is in place. and rather twice than once.