This new Russian offensive essentially concentrates on three big cities, three symbols. The first is obviously the capital Kiev (or Kyiv in the form recommended by Ukraine) and its 3 million inhabitants. That remains the number one objective: to overthrow the power of Volodymir Zelensky. According to several satellite images, two huge columns of tanks and artillery trucks are therefore advancing on two axes towards the city, by the North and by the West, over several tens of kilometers. The television tower was affected this March 1 in the afternoon, the broadcast of the channels is therefore interrupted at Kyiv. And the Russian power announces its intention to target all buildings linked to Ukrainian intelligence. As a way of justifying civilian casualties in advance, if civilians stay near these buildings. Our reporters on the spot point out that in the city center, the streets are deserted. Many residents continue to flee Kyiv.
The second target is Kharkiv, the big city in the North, 1.5 million inhabitants, near the Russian border. Moscow hoped for its rapid downfall. It doesn’t come. And suddenly, it hardens. A hospital was targeted. The Ukrainian government is already denouncing war crimes. And he fears the use of thermobaric bombs, a devastating double explosion system. Finally, the third target, the coastal town of Mariupol, in the South-East, which seems almost caught in a vice, between the Russian forces coming from the South, from Crimea, And those coming from the North, from Donbass. Even if there is contradictory information on the fact of knowing if these various Russian units operated or not a junction. Water and electricity are already lacking in Mariupol, 500,000 inhabitants. The situation there is very worrying.
There are military lessons to be learned from these last hours, notable developments. The first is that the Russian superiority is less overwhelming than expected, even in the air, while on paper it seemed obvious. The efficiency is not total. Similarly, light motorized infantry operations were partly pushed back to Kyiv. This half-failure is, in a way, bad news, because it can lead to a headlong rush on the part of Putin and the Russian general staff: the use of dirty weapons. And especially the use of unconventional forces, which care little about humanitarian issues or civilians: units from the Caucasus (from Chechnya or Daghestan), renowned for their ferocity. They are on the ground near Kyiv. There are no doubt also private mercenaries from the Wagner group. Whose presence Moscow systematically denies. Which authorizes them any exaction.
There has been a lot of talk over the past two days about the European decision to finance or deliver arms to Ukraine, but it is not clear that this will change the course of events in the short term. It’s a bit of a race against time. Because these announcements are recent, the first date from last Saturday. We have to finalize the contracts, clear customs, transport the weapons. With in addition the need sometimes to train Ukrainian soldiers in this equipment, sometimes high technology. Feasible for anti-tank equipment, rocket launchers. Another pair of sleeves for drones or possible fighter planes. And that’s probably also why Putin is accelerating and putting more forces into the fight. Objective: conquer the urban centers before the defensive weapons arrive en masse.