(Moscow) A much-awaited dialogue between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will take place by videoconference on Tuesday against a backdrop of growing tensions between their two countries. This announcement takes place while the Washington post revealed on Friday that Russia was planning an offensive against Ukraine as early as January.
Tensions are high between Russia and Western countries. The Ukrainian government, largely supported by NATO, fears an attack by Russian military forces positioned at the border for several weeks.
Recall that Ukraine was part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) from the 1920s until 1991. Part of the south and east of the country has a large traditionally Russian population.
Since 2014, Ukraine has been torn by a civil war that has claimed more than 13,000 lives, between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists established in the east of the country. These are supported informally by Russia, explains Pierre Jolicœur, professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, specializing in the countries of the former USSR and Russian foreign policy.
This conflict began after Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in the south of the country in 2014. At the time, Russia hoped to join other regions of Ukraine, explains Pierre Jolicoeur. “I think Vladimir Putin overestimated his ability to mobilize the Russian population in Ukraine and underestimated Ukraine’s military capacity in the East [à l’époque] », He analyzes. Russia has been targeted by international sanctions since its annexation of Crimea.
Imposing Moscow mobilization
Friday the Washington post revealed that Russia is planning a military offensive in Ukraine involving 175,000 troops as of January. A senior US official told the daily, on condition of anonymity, that Moscow was preparing to launch “100 battalions made up of tactical groups with an estimated strength of 175,000, as well as tanks, artillery and others. equipment ”.
“It has been a tense situation at the gates of Ukraine for several weeks,” confirms Pierre Jolicoeur. We were talking about 100,000 people, but here, if we are talking about 175,000, it seems more imposing than the last mobilizations [militaires de la Russie]. ”
PHOTO PATRICK SEMANSKY, ARCHIVES ASSOCIATED PRESS
Joe Biden and Vladimir Poutine, last June
In this explosive climate, Mr Biden said on Friday that the United States was preparing a “set of initiatives” to make it “very, very difficult for Mr Putin to do what people fear he is doing”, according to him. Agence France-Presse.
For its part, to ease tensions, Moscow is calling for “security guarantees”. In particular, the Kremlin is asking for assurances that NATO forces will not continue to expand into eastern Ukraine.
It is in this context that Joe Biden and Vladimir Poutin will meet for a virtual summit on Tuesday.
Russia: big talker, little doer?
This is not the first time that Russia has made a show of force on the border with Ukraine in the past year. Moscow has moreover several times denied any bellicose intention and accused the Western countries of multiplying “provocations”, in particular by carrying out military exercises in the Black Sea, a space that Russia considers as its territory, details Agence France- Hurry.
Last spring, Vladimir Poutine had already carried out military maneuvers on the border of Ukraine likely to worry Western countries.
According to several experts, “Vladimir Poutine was seeking to attract attention to show that Russia is still an important player on the international scene”, explains Pierre Jolicoeur. It was also a way of testing Joe Biden’s new administration and getting a one-on-one interview with the US president. “What he got,” adds the professor.
The Kremlin’s intentions are less clear this time around, however, observes Jolicoeur. This increase in the military presence is perhaps a way of reminding us of the importance of Russia internationally, when the United States has paid a lot of attention to China lately, argues the professor.
“Another hypothesis is that Russia takes advantage of inattention [de l’Occident]. If the gaze is focused on the China Sea, it may be an opportunity for Moscow to score points, ”he also analyzes.
One last possibility: Vladimir Putin might wish to restore Russia to its former glory. “Putin is perhaps preparing his exit and wants to prepare his legacy for when he leaves power,” said Pierre Jolicœur.
The expert says he would be surprised if the Kremlin went ahead with an offensive in Ukraine. “But Vladimir Poutine has managed to surprise us several times, he notes. So it’s not impossible. ”
With Agence France-Presse