Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, much emphasis has been placed on Europe’s energy dependence, which buys Russian gas for around 40% of its annual consumption.
Posted at 1:00 p.m.
However, Russia, in fact, had not implemented this power of constraint towards its European customers.
However, by suddenly cutting off its supply of Russian gas to Poland and Bulgaria on April 27, Putin and his clan have just carried out a threat that has long been considered and denounced by the United States and the countries is -Europeans.
This singular gesture by Gazprom, the Russian firm which exports gas to Europe, does indeed mark the end of the myth, long maintained by the German leaders, according to which Moscow, whatever the political conditions, was going to show itself as a reliable energy supplier for Europe.
Worse, Moscow does not hide it: it says it acts in this way to punish countries deemed “unfriendly”, thus openly placing its political objectives above its commercial commitments.
Why is Poland particularly targeted by Moscow? Most likely because this country, long the biggest buyer of Russian gas in Europe, was by far the most militant against the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline projects linking Russia and Germany.
For a long time now, Poland has been the European country which has most emphasized the dangers of linking itself too closely to Russia in terms of energy.
It must be said that Poland was well acquainted with Putin’s methods: in 2009, when Moscow cut off, for about ten days, the supply of gas transiting through Ukraine, it was Poland that suffered the greatest shock: 10 citizens died of cold, in temperatures approaching -20°C.
The country, unsurprisingly, therefore saw the blow coming, and undertook for several years to diversify its gas supplies, with the explicit intention of being less dependent on Russia. He says he is now ready to face the consequences of this hostile decision by Moscow.
It should be noted that Lithuania completely freed itself from any dependence on Russian gas this very year, betting on imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and Norway.
For Poland, this disconnection from Russian gas goes through an LNG import terminal commissioned in 2016.
In 2017, the arrival of a first shipment of LNG from the United States, much more than just commercial news, was celebrated in the country as an achievement consolidating its sovereignty.
The country is also betting on increased trade with its neighbours, including Lithuania, thanks to a new gas pipeline (GIPL project) which should be operational shortly, and on its gas reserves, which are nearly 80% full. After the Russian invasion, the European Union set its members a target of 90% stockpiling by early October.
Finally, a brand new gas pipeline, the Baltic Pipe, from Norway to Poland, should be opened by the end of this year. He arrives at the right time.
But Moscow’s sudden decision remains a brutal, historic gesture, a headlong rush that will take a long time to fade from memory in Europe. We no longer see how Russia will be able to become an energy supplier on this continent again for many long generations.