The Russian army said on Friday that it now wanted to limit its offensive on eastern Ukraine. A decision that could be explained by stronger Ukrainian resistance than expected, experts say.
Posted yesterday at 11:33 p.m.
Russian forces said on Friday that “the combat capabilities of Ukrainian forces have been significantly reduced”, which allows them to focus the majority of their efforts on the main objective: the liberation of Donbass. This region of eastern Ukraine has been partially occupied by Russian-backed separatists since 2014.
This change of objective could be explained by a Russian offensive which does not take place as planned, rather believe the experts consulted by The Press. “Putin said in the last three weeks that he wanted to liberate all of Ukraine. It clearly demonstrates a recalibration of the objectives of the invasion,” says Marie-Joëlle Zahar, researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal.
“The Ukrainians are mobilized to defend themselves fiercely, and the Russian troops have enormous difficulty in making gains, especially in the big cities”, observes for his part Richard Giguère, retired brigadier-general of the Canadian Armed Forces and expert at the Graduate School of International Studies of Laval University. He believes that Russia’s goal of focusing its offensive on eastern Ukraine is “much more realistic”.
PHOTO EFREM LUKATSKY, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Firefighters extinguish a fire caused by a Russian strike in Kharkiv.
Michel Fortmann, professor of foreign policy and national security at the University of Montreal, agrees. “The Russians are caught in front of two large cities of several million inhabitants, Kyiv and Kharkiv. Going building by building is extremely expensive. Putin solves the problem by withdrawing his forces from northern Ukraine and keeping only the strip of territory he is interested in,” he says.
“Ukraine will stand firm”
A senior US defense official said Russia’s military advance on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv appeared to have stalled on Friday. He said Russia seemed more focused on fighting for control of Donbass at the moment. “Kyiv is under the safe protection of our army. This means that Ukraine will stand firm,” Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov wrote on Facebook.
Also according to Washington, Ukrainian forces have launched a counter-offensive on Kherson, the only major city conquered entirely by Russia. “The Ukrainians are trying to retake Kherson,” a senior official said.
In Vinnytsia, in the center of the country, the command center of the Ukrainian air forces was hit on Friday by six missiles. “Some were shot down by anti-aircraft defence. The others hit several buildings, causing significant damage,” the air force command announced on Telegram.
If a command and control center is hit, the military response can be destructured, says Marie-Joëlle Zahar. “Having said that, there are more and more mobile command centers in contemporary wars, and so the possibility that this command center will quickly be recreated elsewhere is quite high,” she said.
Evacuation of Mariupol to come
On the ground, Mariupol announced that around 300 people had died in the bombed theater on 16 March. Hundreds of people, “mainly women, children and the elderly”, had taken refuge in this building, recalled the town hall. When the theater was hit, a huge ‘CHILDREN’ sign was posted outside in Russian, so as to be visible from the sky.
More than 2,000 civilians have been killed in this besieged city, according to the municipality, and some 100,000 of its inhabitants are still stranded there, said the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. On Friday evening, the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, announced that France, Turkey and Greece would carry out a “humanitarian operation” to evacuate civilians from Mariupol “in the very next few days”.
PHOTO ALEKSEY FILIPPOV, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
People who fled Mariupol arrive at the train station in Lviv, western Ukraine.
The United States and other countries have also accelerated their arms and equipment transfers to Ukraine. The day before, Mr. Zelensky had pleaded with Western allies for planes, tanks, rockets, air defense systems and other weapons.
Negotiations stall
On Friday, the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations seemed to skate. “On the main [questions] policies, we are treading water,” said Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s chief negotiator.
The discussions are “very difficult”, added the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kouleba, denying any “consensus” for the moment with Moscow.
Moreover, Moscow has acknowledged the death of 1,351 of its soldiers since the start of the conflict. The day before, NATO rather estimated the losses of Russian soldiers between 7,000 and 15,000. try to increase those of the adversary”, says Mme Zahar.
In a month of war, thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, 6.5 million have had to leave their homes, of which more than 4,300 have been destroyed, according to a recent assessment by President Zelensky. The general prosecutor’s office reported on its side at least 135 children killed and 184 others injured.
With Agence France-Presse and the Associated Press