Russia overwhelmed, Moscow imposes partial containment

Moscow residents over 60 who are not vaccinated will have to stay in confinement for four months; teleworking becomes compulsory in companies and administrations for at least one in three employees: Russia is imposing new health restrictions in the capital. By January 1, it is no longer 60% but 80% of employees in the service sector who will need to be vaccinated if they want to keep their jobs.

Moscow, the Russian capital, remains the main source of contamination, but all of Russia is suffering from the resumption of the epidemic. The delta variant is responsible for new records broken every day. The official toll shows more than 225,000 dead, it is already the heaviest in Europe. It would actually be two or even three times higher.

To slow the progression of the disease, the Kremlin is planning, as it had already done in June, a week off at the national level from the end of the month.

These bad figures can be explained first of all by a very low vaccination rate: only 35% of the population has had their two doses. Russia ranks 86th in the world, between Suriname and Laos. By way of comparison, in Europe it is 74% on average. The Russians are very suspicious of the national vaccine, Sputnik V, and the government is just beginning to hold a speech of injunction, to appeal for collective responsibility.

The country was one of the first in the world to develop a vaccine, but the Kremlin immediately made it part of national and international propaganda, it turned a health instrument into a political instrument. It was a strategic error, the population felt trapped. In addition, the European Medicines Agency and the WHO have still not approved Sputnik V, it has not raised confidence.

The second explanation is the absence of restrictions or containments. The authorities have done everything to impose them as a last resort for fear of further weakening an already fragile economy. There has not been one since the summer of 2020, it is only very recently that several regions have reintroduced the health pass, a measure which is also very unpopular. It was also about not robbing the population before the September elections.

It’s not just Russia. In Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, the situation is roughly similar, these three countries are facing a major resurgence of the epidemic.

With a particular consequence for Russia: the excess mortality linked to Covid-19 indeed accentuates the massive demographic decline there, a subject of obsession for Vladimir Putin who has been trying to stop this collapse since he came to power. The country, which now has 145 million inhabitants, has never lost so many inhabitants in peacetime: one million deaths over a year (including the deaths from the Covid and all the others).


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