Finland and Sweden joining NATO would be “very healthy” because “Russia only understands the balance of power”, estimated Sunday May 15 on franceinfo Alexis Vahlas, research professor at Scienco Po Strasbourg and former political adviser to NATO.
Finland has effectively formalized its application for membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Sweden is expected to follow suit as the country’s ruling Social Democratic Party has given the go-ahead for a candidacy, paving the way for the government to apply for membership. These two member countries of the European Union are motivated by the war in Ukraine.
franceinfo: Is this the end of a certain balance vis-à-vis Russia with a European Union almost entirely under the colors of NATO?
Alexis Valhlas: Indeed, it may be the creation or the search for a new balance. As you have just said, most of the Member States of the European Union are also part of NATO. If Finland and Sweden join NATO, we will end up with 23 of the 27 Member States of the European Union which will also be members of the Atlantic Alliance.
Is this therefore the end of the vast project of a common European defence, of a security regime specific to Europe?
I do not think so. And it’s true that we often tend, especially in France, to see things exclusively, as if there were a disjunctive reading “it’s NATO or the European Union”. In reality, in the field of defence, things are organized in a completely different way. For most Member States, we are in a very comfortable position: we have both NATO and the European Union. NATO offers a military potential with the United States, Turkey, the United Kingdom which the European Union does not have and the European Union is being built on the defense plan in an autonomous but complementary way with regard to the ‘NATO. That’s the line and from that point of view, it only strengthens the strategic partnership between the two organisations. For major threats, NATO and the European Union as an independent military actor but complementary to the Atlantic Alliance.
This means that legally, militarily, any action by Russia vis-à-vis these two countries will be an action against NATO. What consequences will this have? Will this create new tensions within the European Union since Russia promises a response in the event of membership?
Frankly, I think on the contrary, it shows Russia that everyone is adapting to the situation. There is a Russian threat which seems real, which seems dangerous for a large number of States. In the balance of power imposed on us by Russia, we have been quite passive up to now, systematically questioning ourselves, wondering whether we should not give pledges to try to save face. No, Russia only understands the balance of power until we win, until Russia stops its invasion of Ukraine. We must continue the balance of power. NATO has an article 10 which allows the enlargement of the organization to any European state and from the moment when NATO is an attractive organization, there is no reason to refuse applications from European countries.
What can be all the same the capacity of nuisance of Russia, from now on?
It’s hard to say. What is worrying for us is that Russia will not deprive itself of any instrument to try to divide us, to weaken us. That’s why you have to be strong, you have to be ready for anything. But don’t be too defensive. And that’s why this initiative from Finland and possibly Sweden, in my opinion, is very beneficial in the current balance of power.