Russia is gaining the upper hand militarily in Ukraine thanks to a larger pool of forces and material support from countries including North Korea and China, Norwegian intelligence warned Monday.
Presenting the annual risk assessment report by the Norwegian security services, military intelligence chief Nils Andreas Stensønes said kyiv will need “substantial” Western military aid to hope to turn the situation around.
“In this war, Russia is currently in a stronger position than a year ago and is gaining the advantage,” officer Stensønes told reporters.
To support this, he argued that Russia “could mobilize around three times as many troops as Ukraine”, that “Moscow is adapting to sanctions better than expected” and that its industry is now capable of producing munitions, vehicles combat equipment, drones and missiles, allowing its forces to “maintain their war efforts all year round”.
Russia, he said, benefits from military support from North Korea, Iran, Belarus and China, which he said did not provide weapons, but “machines, vehicles, electronics and spare parts” useful to the Russian arms industry.
“Substantial Western aid in weapons will be required so that the Ukrainian forces can defend themselves and regain the initiative in the conflict,” he stressed, recalling the needs for ammunition, long-range weapons, anti-aircraft defense, tanks and combat aircraft.
Norway is, with Denmark and the Netherlands in particular, one of the European countries to have committed to supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighters, an aircraft that Kiev is insistently requesting from its allies.
“Norway and Europe must be prepared to take more responsibility to ensure their own security and that of their allies,” responded Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram. If the United States has been the main military supporter of kyiv since the Russian invasion in February 2022, the inability of Congress to release new aid and the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House place increased responsibility on Europeans.