The crisis around Ukraine is causing gas prices to rise again. But Francis Perrin, research director at IRIS, does not “does not believe in a voluntary gas cut by the Russian leaders”.
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Oil and gas prices are on the rise again. After a slight lull, they climbed again on Wednesday February 16, boosted by the persistent tensions around Ukraine. In the showdown between Europe and Russia, gas is a weapon. But according to Francis Perrin, research director at IRIS, if European countries need Russian gas, Russia and Gazprom need the European market.
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“I do not believe in the scenario of a voluntary shutdown by the Russian leaders and by Gazprom“, he explains: “When it comes to gas, we don’t have a one-way addiction. We have a double dependency“. The specialist recalls that Europe is “the main market for Russian exports of gaz”. About 40% of the gas imported into Europe comes from Russia.
If the Russians decided to stop these deliveries, they would shoot themselves twice in both feet.
Francis Perrin, research director at IRISon franceinfo
According to the researcher, other scenarios are possible, “in case of war“: “As part of a military operation in Ukraine, gas pipelines could be damaged, or gas pipelines transporting Russian gas to the European Union and passing through Ukraine could be closed as a precaution“.
Francis Perrin also envisages another scenario: that Western countries exercise economic reprisals against Russia, including by targeting the energy sector. “They would then deprive themselves, to sanction Moscowhe explains, of part of the Russian supplies“.