“Russia missed the war but is winning the battle in the Donbass”, explained General Dominique Trinquand, military expert and former head of the French military mission to the UN in New York, invited Tuesday, May 24 on franceinfo. Three months after the start of the war in Ukraine, on February 24, Vladimir Putin managed to obtain a “territorial continuity between Crimea and Donbass”. “Progress continues, laboriously, with difficulty, slowly, but it continues”continued the specialist, referring to a “long war” from which we come out “hardly”.
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franceinfo: After three months of war, who has taken over whom?
General Dominique Trinquand: Russia missed the war but is winning the battle in the Donbass. Three months ago, President Putin wanted to overthrow the Ukrainian government, quickly. It failed. Then, he launched offensives on the whole front, in the East. All failed, except one, in the south.
“The breakthrough between Crimea and Donbass has succeeded. Mariupol has just fallen. There is territorial continuity between Crimea and Donbass. The Sea of Azov has become a Russian sea.”
General Dominique Trinquandat franceinfo
And progress continues, laboriously, with difficulty, slowly, but it continues in the Donbass. We have the impression that we are settling into a long war, in which – in the short term – Russia will progress in this region. It is already settling defensively over the entire southern strip around the Sea of Azov, while preparing for the annexation of these territories to Russia.
>> After three months of war in Ukraine, what scenarios are envisaged for the weeks to come?
We are talking about 15,000 Russian soldiers killed since the beginning of the war, that is as many as during the nine years of war in Afghanistan. How to explain that the balance sheet is so heavy on the Russian side?
For several reasons. First, the failure of the Russian strategy to send four failed axes of attack. The very strong resistance of the Ukrainian army, of course, and, finally, the poor organization of the Russian army which repeatedly showed its logistical and tactical flaws, such as during the failure to cross the Donetsk which been shown in all pictures. All this accumulates the human losses.
Does Vladimir Putin still have reserves of men and armaments?
Not many extra men, no. In total, there are 96 battalions in the Donbass which, in overall numbers, make up about 60 because they are not all at 100%. But this pressure, and above all the massive use of artillery, ensured that the Russians continued to advance. Moreover, the secessionist republics have completely mobilized their troops, whereas in Russia general mobilization is more difficult, even if all the reservists have been mobilised.
How do we get out of this war?
Hardly. But I would like to remind you that this war that we have been seeing since February 24 has existed since 2014 in eastern Ukraine. We didn’t talk about it. The war continues and, unlike before, it has taken on a different intensity. It will continue, but in a much wider region. Positions will settle. The territories will continue to be occupied. Odessa will certainly be choked by the sea.