“The Russians are looking for a more effective modus operandi to be sustainable”affirms, Wednesday October 19 on franceinfo, Alexis Vahlas, former political adviser of military and civil operations of NATO and the EU and responsible for the course security of Europe and international stability at Sciences Po Strasbourg.
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Russia introduced martial law in the annexed territories of Ukraine and began the evacuation of civilians in the city of Kherson. For Alexis Vahlas, this martial law is also a way for Russia “to regain the initiative in the media field”.
franceinfo: What should we expect from this martial law?
Alexis Vahlas: It is likely that the three desired effects are first of all to deter acts of resistance and desertion in the armed forces and among civilian populations where people may be waiting for the Ukrainian counter-offensive and would be tempted to facilitate it. The Russians are also looking for a more effective modus operandi in order to sustain themselves, so the concentration of powers and the partial transition to a war economy are being accentuated. Finally, it makes it possible to regain the initiative on the media field, that we do not simply speak of the fiasco of the mobilization and the evacuation of Kherson. It is therefore well thought out from the Russian point of view to try to change the balance of power and reorganize.
What should we think of this evacuation of the population in the city of Kherson by the Russian army, is the population evacuated by force?
I think essentially it’s an evacuation, giving civilians who want to leave the opportunity to leave because the situation is badly off for the Russian side in Kherson. The progress of the Ukrainian army is slow but it is not a question of pushing back the Russians but of encircling and trying to capture the maximum number of soldiers. If the fighting lasts, the civilian population will suffer and the Russian public opinion would perhaps be unfavorably sensitive to the terrible images of the pro-Russian civilian population abandoned in Kherson, so the civilians are given the possibility of leaving.
The recent Russian attacks are intended to deprive Ukrainians of electricity, water and heating, which makes Joe Biden say that the only tool left at Vladimir Putin’s disposal is to make the Ukrainian people suffer, What do you think ?
From a legal point of view, there can be mistakes. Even international humanitarian law allows you to take the risk of killing civilian populations if you are targeting military infrastructure. The situation is therefore complicated from a legal point of view. But when so many civilian infrastructures are affected then doubt is no longer allowed. From a legal point of view, it reinforces the idea that Russia could one day be found responsible for crimes against humanity and from a political point of view, it kills the Russian argument concerning its desire to save populations which are only waiting for Russia since in reality now Moscow wants to weaken the Ukrainian power by making its population suffer in the middle of winter.