“Russia is carrying out very intense activity in all the former Soviet republics”, explains Sunday, January 9 on franceinfo Cyrille Bret, professor at Sciences Po Paris, author of “Ten attacks that changed the world, understanding terrorism in the twenty-first century” (Armand Colin), while the United States and Russia meet this Sunday evening in Geneva to try to defuse the explosive crisis that is playing out around Ukraine.
franceinfo: What can the American administration do in this context?
The margins of actions of the United States are today reduced, for reasons of domestic policy. For more than a month, the Russian president has gone on the offensive in all areas. In the military field by organizing exercises on its own territory near Ukraine. In the media field with a press conference which had an international impact. And in recent days with the deployment of Russian troops in Kazakhstan. We can see that Russia is deploying very intense activity in all the former Soviet socialist republics: Kazakhstan, Belarus and the Ukraine of course.
Is Moscow’s goal to have a completely free hand in Eastern Europe?
Yes, it is to wash away the affront of the 1990s and to arrive at the negotiating table with the United States in a position of strength, exerting maximum pressure before discussing. Reducing the pressure already appears to be a concession from Russia and will make the Russians ask for concessions in return from the United States. What the Russians want is not only to have a free hand in Eastern and Western Europe, but above all to get rid of any prospect of joining NATO or the European Union in the former socialist republics.
Among the issues that will be discussed, there is obviously Russian support for Kazakhstani power, which is very much criticized by the United States. Apart from declarations, can Washington act on this situation?
She tried. During the 2000s, Kazakhstan nurtured a fairly important dialogue with the United States within the framework of the international war on terrorism close to the Middle East. Today, the regime that rules Kazakhstan finds itself in greater dependence on Moscow, which further reduces American influence and prevents Joe Biden from fully investing in this issue. And let’s not forget that Central Asia is not only a power issue for Russia, but also for China because the Silk Road passes through this immense country that is Kazakhstan. The United States faces Russian rivalry, of course, but also other powers.
The Wagner group was recently suspected of deploying in Mali. Is this group another Russian offensive?
It is a group of mercenaries made up of former Russian soldiers. Russia’s panoply of intervention in world affairs is now much more complex than it was 10 years ago. The arsenal of Russian news sites and television channels to influence public information is extremely strong. The economic weapon thanks to the rise in gas prices is very important. And there is this vector of private military companies, which makes it possible to attempt blows of influence in Africa, but also in Latin America. It should not be imagined that this group is directly actuated by the Russian presidency, but as in Ukraine, Russian actors assert Russian interests, sometimes at the cost of destabilizing countries and regimes.