“Moscow is trying to avoid frank and massive intervention” in Kazakhstan, Jean de Gliniasty, research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris), said on franceinfo Wednesday January 5. The Central Asian country has been rocked by protests since Sunday and the announcement of rising gas prices. The demonstrators revolt in particular against the still present stranglehold of the former president.
While the president on Wednesday asked for military aid from Russia and the country pledged to send troops, “LRussia has other means of influencing “ on the country’s issues, says Jean de Gliniasty.
franceinfo: What is happening in Kazakhstan?
Jean from Gliniasty: This is not the first time that there have been protests in Kazakhstan. There were some in every electoral episode. It is a country which is not that stable. There are different clans vying for power. There is also a shrinking minority of Russians, around 20%, especially in the northern provinces. It is the country which kept the most Russians after the fall of the USSR. We believed in a smooth transition when in March 2019 Nursultan Äbichouly Nazarbaïev, the former president who reigned for thirty years, gave way to Kassym-Jomart Kemelouly Tokaïev, who was a candidate fully approved by Moscow. The problem is that Nazarbayev remained in charge. He took over the leadership of the National Security Council and was named Father of the Fatherland. He therefore remains a very powerful actor in political life. It was not experienced by the Kazakh people as a real transition. The second element is the great fear of the Russians that the departure of the Americans from Afghanistan will destabilize the country and lead to a reactivation of Islamist networks. It is not at all excluded that this will happen. Add to this the fact that it is a very unequal country, although it is the richest country in the region since its GDP is almost the equivalent of all other GDPs in Central Asia. This wealth is poorly distributed. Therefore, the increase in the price of liquefied gas was enough to create the spark that starts this type of unrest.
How can the situation evolve? Can Moscow intervene?
Judging by the precedents, Moscow is trying to avoid frank and massive intervention. During the crisis in Kyrgyzstan in 2010, the country called on the Collective Security Treaty Organization, in which Russia is the main actor, to help the government and they were careful not to intervene. Russia still has other means of influencing than direct intervention, but it has very important interests in Kazakhstan. It is the country which remained closest to Russia after the fall of the USSR. There is the huge Baikonur base, from where it launches its satellites. This represents almost two or three French departments. It is a huge territory with all the space facilities. So there is a much stronger strategic sensitivity for the Russians in Kazakhstan. In fact, I don’t think they intervene but they follow it like milk on the fire.
Is this the sign of an increasingly strong loss of influence of Russia on the former republics of the USSR?
These are convulsions that could be described as postcolonial. The powers that be at present are powers which, on the whole, satisfy Russia. They know how to keep the balance between China and Russia. However, all claim a multivector diplomacy which allows them to sign – as is the case with Kazakhstan – agreements with Italy, NATO countries and Turkey. There is real autonomy in the foreign policy of these countries, provided that they do not join NATO and that they keep good relations with Russia. But it is clear that these independence leads to a weakening of the physical presence of the Russians and of the Russian influence in these countries. Kazakhstan, for example, passed a law last year that organizes the transition from the Cyrillic alphabet to the Latin alphabet in 2025.
Is there a risk of repression on the spot?
I believe that it is already there but, for the moment, this repression remains within standards which one could qualify as suitable, that is to say that one does not shoot on the crowd. They are tear gas canisters and batons. Hopefully it stays at this level.