Many countries around the world are facing a dizzying drop in the birth rate. While Italy seems to be a prisoner of its demographic decline, Russia and China are facing the failure of their pro-natalist policy.
With the war in Ukraine, Russia faces a drop in the birth rate
In Russia, the authorities have one eye on the war in Ukraine and the other on the demographic statistics which have not been good for years. The country is losing inhabitants: from 147 million inhabitants in 1989, the country had only 145.5 million in 2021 and again, including the 2.4 million inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula, annexed in 2014.
This has been a recurring problem for Russian governments since the end of the USSR: how to stop the decline of the population? Mortality is higher than in many European countries, especially among men, and the birth rate remains low at around 1.5 children per woman of childbearing age. Russia is losing people. To remedy this, the authorities spend billions of rubles on allowances for the second or third child.
These measures seemed to have stabilized the birth rate over the past two years, but in the first quarter of 2022 the birth rate started to fall again. Demographer Alexey Raksha expects the situation to deteriorate further. “There is going to be a very bad combination of problems next yearhe explains. The incentive programs are coming to an end. The war that started in February will affect births in December and the economic crisis will also have effects in early 2023. I think it will be a very bad year for births in Russia and the following year will not be better.”
“During the next two years, Russia could see the lowest number of births ever recorded.”
Alexey Raksha, demographerat franceinfo
The economic crisis which should affect the country in the third quarter will have consequences on the birth rate. If the income of the population decreases by 10% predicts Alexei Raksha, the birth rate of the second and third child will also decrease by 10%.
China’s birth rate at lowest level since 1978
China, like Russia, is also facing an aging population. The authorities are increasing the incentive measures to try to boost the birth rate. After decades of a one-child policy, young couples have been allowed to have two and even three children since last year, but these measures have no effect on the numbers. The decline in the birth rate is reaching worrying proportions in the most populous country in the world. Last year, the birth rate reached its lowest level since 1978, with 7.52 births per 1,000 people.
The main reason is that young Chinese parents who have changed priorities. Studies and professional career are now considered more important. This is the case for this mother who gave birth to her first baby this winter in Shanghai at the age of 41. “I took the time I needed to complete my studiesshe explains. I passed my thesis, I got married a bit late and after the wedding, I wanted to live my life as a couple. I was in no rush to have a child. In addition to work, there is a lot of daily pressure. I don’t have the will to raise another child.”
“Around me, it’s rare to find friends who have a second or third child.”
A resident of Shanghaiat franceinfo
If young couples are hesitant to pass the milestone of the first child, it is also because life is more and more expensive in China, housing in particular and higher education. The cost of education in the country is considered one of the highest in the world. To convince parents, several regions have recently increased maternity leave from 30 to 90 days. Family planning has launched a national program to try to limit abortions as much as possible, but without real results for the moment. The stakes are paramount for China, which fears not being able to renew its population to make its economy work.
Italy has the lowest fertility rate in Europe with Spain
Italy is the country in Europe where the fertility rate is the lowest with Spain. In 2021, the number of births even fell below 400,000 (compared to 738,000 in France). And if the birth rate is not reversed in 2050, the country will have 5 million fewer inhabitants with just over one in two people of working age.
What is striking is that this state of affairs is anticipated by politicians: in five years, National Education will begin to lose posts, 10,000 over the following five years, because there will be nearly 1.4 million fewer students over the next 12 years. Just a year ago, the first general assembly of the family was organized in Rome with the Pope and Mario Draghi as guests. But “one year after our cry of alarm” according to organizer Gigi De Palo, “Concretely, nothing has been done!”
However, the government of Mario Draghi has implemented a law on the family and has even launched universal family allowances. Except that the decrees of application take time, that the revolution indeed of the single speech is finally in force only since March and that it is not financed enough, it gathers in only one payment everything that was offered so far. Another difficulty: the fight against the pay gap between men and women has only just begun. And the care of children is insufficient: within five years, Italy will reach a third of children taken care of, 17 years behind the European objectives.