The head of American diplomacy on Wednesday January 19 called on Vladimir Putin to choose the “peaceful way” in the Ukrainian crisis, two days before a Russian-American diplomatic face-to-face. Russia has deployed tens of thousands of troops to the Ukrainian border in recent weeks, raising fears of an invasion. While denying any plan of attack, the Kremlin insists that a de-escalation requires guarantees for its security, in particular the commitment never to enlarge NATO, in particular to Ukraine.
Bruno Drweski, lecturer at the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (Inalco), specialist in Eastern Europe explains on franceinfo that “the two powers are condemned to agree” otherwise “it’s the war”. The United States says a Russian attack on Ukraine is possible at any time, but continues to seek “a diplomatic solution”. Bruno Drweski does not believe in a Russian offensive. “I don’t think that Russia has, at the moment, any real interest in taking control of Ukraine given the economic situation in Ukraine”, he analyzes. The idea for Russia is to make “pressure to have global negotiations”, according to him.
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franceinfo: Is a Russian attack possible at any time?
Bruno Drwesky: No, I don’t think so because otherwise it would have happened a long time ago. I don’t think that Russia has, at this moment, much interest in taking control of Ukraine given the economic situation in Ukraine. On the other hand, I think that Russia is pushing for global negotiations, Ukraine being only one element in the international game.
“Obviously, for Russia, an American presence or a NATO presence in Ukraine is unacceptable because it would mean that Moscow is four minutes away from bombs.”
Bruno Drweski, lecturer at Inalcoat franceinfo
For the Russians, it is a question of restoring a balance between Russia, the United States and NATO. Ukraine is only one training ground, among others, one of the first training grounds between the two superpowers.
Who is Putin addressing this message to?
He addresses it to the United States considering that NATO is only an instrument of the United States. Which obviously explains why he decided to negotiate directly with Washington. Which can obviously upset the Europeans, who would like to be part of it. But for the moment, Putin is most certainly targeting the United States to try to obtain a global agreement on many issues, in particular, of course, on the question of NATO enlargement, which he does not accept.
The head-to-head scheduled for Friday between Antony Blinken, the head of American diplomacy, and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, is already a victory for Moscow?
A victory for Moscow, but more broadly a victory for common sense because in any case the two powers are condemned to get along. If they don’t get along, it’s war, not only in Ukraine, it can be world war. However, I dare to hope that neither of the two protagonists wants a nuclear war. Russia is asking for a treaty banning any enlargement of NATO, in particular to Ukraine and Georgia, and for the Americans and their allies to renounce organizing maneuvers and military deployments in Eastern Europe.
Can Russia prevail?
They set the bar very high in Ukraine and said that after all, they could also place Russian troops in Cuba as a reminder that one can also get closer to the borders of the United States. This is obviously the proof of a language of extreme firmness with the aim of creating a balance of power which leads roughly speaking to a compromise comparable to that which we had in the 1960s, during the crisis in Cuba.
What game can Europe play?
For the moment, the Europeans are actually quite largely absent. Vladimir Putin, on several occasions, showed his condescension with regard to the Europeans who, according to him, do not take enough independence. They probably want Europe to become another long-term partner. But for the moment, he suggests that the Europeans should show a more independent policy, more autonomous from Washington.